Summary of Prosperity 2000 Strategy for India


March 22, 1996

Prosperity 2000

A CALL TO THE NATION

Commercial Agriculture as an Engine for
Rural Development, Industrialization
and Full Employment

Based on a study and strategy prepared by the International Commission on Peace and Food

The Indian nation is on the move. The people are astir. Agriculture is blooming. Industry is booming. The legacy of self-deprecation and self-doubt inherited from the colonial period have given way to a new-found dynamism, confidence and sense of self-determination. No longer harping critically about its past, the country has come to recognize its commendable achievements and become aware of the tremendous opportunities which the future holds for even more rapid progress. This change in attitude and this emerging consciousness of opportunity are the most essential ingredients for accelerating development.


Strategy to Complement the Economic Liberalization

The international community has noted with some amazement India's impressive gains over the last five years in recovering from the severe economic problems brought on by high rates of inflation, high budget deficits, and falling foreign exchange reserves. Today the country enjoys a very low inflation rate, comfortable reserves of hard currency and an industrial growth rate approaching 12%. Exports are growing at a phenomenal rate of 24%. Employment generation has risen from an average of 4.8 million new jobs per annum in the 1980s and a low of 3 million just five years ago to a record 7.2 million last year.

These gains are remarkable and beyond the expectations of even the most far-sighted analysts. However, even if the most optimistic targets are achieved, it will not ensure that rising incomes and employment opportunities will be available to all who presently live in poverty. The problem with the economic reform package is not that it is stimulating the rapid growth of some sectors, especially industry and exports, but that it is not doing enough for the 70% of the population residing in rural areas, of which 65% are engaged in agriculture.

India needs a new strategy to complement the economic reforms, a strategy designed to take full advantage of the country's agro-climatic advantages, huge tracks of cultivable land, and large internal market to stimulate a rapid development of the rural economy.


Agriculture as an Engine for Industrialization

Rising productivity and profitability from agriculture was a primary cause of the Industrial Revolution in England during the early 19th Century. It raised the purchasing power of the rural population, stimulated greater demand for manufactured goods and led to the growth of industries. In America too, rising productivity in agriculture was a strong spur to the development of the manufacturing sector at the turn of the century.

The rapid development of South Korea, Taiwan, and Malaysia provides ample evidence that an agriculture-driven strategy can act as a powerful engine for raising rural incomes, industrialization and employment generation. More recently, commercial agriculture has been a powerful engine for economic development in Thailand, where 70% of the population is still employed in the farm sector.


India's Competitive Advantage in Agriculture

India possesses four outstanding competitive advantages in agriculture comparable to those of any other country in the world. First, it has regions which are climatically favourable for cultivation of every commercially-important plant species grown in other parts of the world - ranging from temperate orchard crops such as almonds and apples to tropical mangoes and pineapple. Second, the country already possesses the largest acreage of irrigated land in the world with 40% of the potential still to be tapped. Third, the gap between present productivity and proven technological potential is very large for most crops; yet even so, the country is already among the world's top three producers of tea, cotton, sugar, food grains, groundnut, coffee, eggs and milk. Fourth, the country has an abundance of available skilled, educated, technical and scientific manpower.


From Minimum Needs to Maximum Potentials

During the colonial period India suffered from food deficits and severe famines. Thus, in the early days of India's Independence, it was natural for the Government to focus its attention on production of sufficient food grains to meet the minimum dietary needs of a rapidly expanding population. As a result of the Green Revolution, India defied the dire predictions of international experts by doubling its food grain production within a decade and achieving self-sufficiency in cereal crops. Since then, the agricultural sector has ceased to receive the attention it deserves. Combating the threat of famine is no longer a pressing priority, but that does not mean agriculture has fulfilled its mission.

It is time to stop thinking of agriculture simply as a means to provide for the minimum food needs of an expanding population. We must come to look upon agriculture as a business and do everything possible to maximize productivity, incomes and employment in this sector. This is as important for the individual farmers trying to maximizing the living standards of their families with limited land and financial resources as it is for companies seeking profitable investments in the agri-business sector.

Rising farm incomes will generate tremendous demand for consumer goods, equipment, processing and distribution industries stimulating rapid growth in industry and rising job opportunities in both the rural and urban sectors. Here lies a strategy that can bring prosperity to the Indian people.


Creating Rural Jobs as a Counter to Urban Migration

Agriculture is the key to generating full employment in the country. This sector not only provides on-farm employment but also generates employment opportunities in processing industries, manufacturing, food distribution and the transport sector. Although less than 3% of the US population is currently engaged in farming, one out of every three jobs in America is related to the production, processing, distribution or export of agricultural produce.

Wherever agriculture has become modernized in India, labour has become scarce. Progressive agricultural centers such as Coimbatore, Pune and Punjab have also become centers of industrialization, where many farmers shy away from labour intensive crops because workers are finding higher paid employment opportunities in industry.

Full development of India's potential for commercial agriculture, agro-industry, agri-business and agro-exports can eradicate poverty and unemployment within the decade. A study undertaken for the International Commission on Peace and Food concluded that full development of the India's agricultural potential can lead to the creation of more than 100 million new jobs. The study indicates that the cost of creating employment through this approach is by far the most cost-effective and affordable strategy. In fact, it can be accomplished with the available resources and without dependence on external resources by a reprioritization of plan investments.

A detailed micro-level study of Pune District by the Agricultural Finance Corporation has confirmed this potential. AFC's report identifies a wide range of commercially viable opportunities for both private farmers and the corporate sector, and estimated that 750,000 jobs can be created in this single district through an agriculture-led strategy. Similar studies need to be conducted throughout the country to fully document the potential at the local level.

According to one estimate, for every ton of additional foodgrains produced in India, one new job is created in the economy. Rising productivity in agriculture can stimulate the growth of agro-industries, food processing and distribution, and demand for new industrial plants and machinery. It will also increase demand for consumer good, household appliances and tourism in the rural sector, creating a boom in related sectors.


Growing Domestic Demand

Achieving nutritional security for the Indian masses will require a significant increase in daily intake of calories, protein, vitamins and minerals. The present nutritional gap represents a vast pent-up demand for more and better quality foods while can be translated into commercial opportunities for India's farmers.

Indians consume an average of 40 grams per day of horticulture products compared to a normal nutritional demand of 90 grams. As incomes rise, the domestic market for horticulture products is projected to increase by 60% over the next six years. Overall, there is scope for placing an additional 1 million acres under horticulture crops. This will generate demand for 100 new commercial hybrid seed production units in the country.

Sugar consumption in India has tripled over the last three decades and now exceeds 13 kg. per person per year. Yet even current levels of consumption remain very low compared with those of other developing countries: 21 kg. in Kenya, 31 kg. in Argentina, 33 kg. in Egypt, 44 kg. in Brazil and 45 kg. in Mexico. Over the next decade, rising incomes are projected to increase India's domestic consumption to 25 kg. per capita. This will create demand for at least 300 new sugar mills. Failure to anticipate surging demand could lead to massive sugar imports.


Tremendous Export Opportunities

India has the potential to become a global leader in agriculture. Already agriculture exports, including textiles, have risen from Rs 10,000 crores to Rs 40,000 crores over the past five years. Grape and mango exports to Western Europe are rapidly increasing.

Floriculture is a $40 billion global industry that is projected to reach $70 billion by year 2000, of which international trade in cut flowers accounts for $6 billion. India's exports of cut flower have risen from $2 million to $10 million annually over the past five years, but the potential is 100 fold greater. New floriculture projects are already springing up around the country.

Exports of processed fruits and vegetable, cotton textiles, sugar, and fish have vast potential. Processing can multi andhe ancia. threarm

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