Indicators of Economic Progress: The Power of Measurement and Human Welfare

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Table of Contents

  1. Introduction
  2. Tools and Measures
  3. Measures of National Income
  4. Need for New Theory
  5. Measures and Indicators
  6. Characteristics of a Successful Indicator
  7. The Problem of Value
  8. What are we trying to measure?
  9. Alternative indices
  10. Components of Economic Welfare
  11. Human Economic Welfare Index (HEWI)
  12. Composite HEWI
  13. Conclusions
  14. Endnotes

1. Introduction

Right measurement is a powerful instrument for social progress; wrong or imprecise  measurement a source of hazard and even havoc. The essential purpose of economic activity is the promotion of human development, welfare and well-being in a sustainable manner, and not growth for growth’s sake, yet we lack effective measures to monitor progress toward these objectives. Advances in understanding, theory and measurement must necessarily proceed hand in hand. A companion article in this publication sets forth the urgent need for new theory in economics. This article sets forth the complementary need for new measures. The stakes are high and the choice is ours. On one side, rising social  tensions, recurring financial crises and ecological disaster; on the other, the progressive unfolding and development of human capacity in harmony with Nature. The deficiencies of GDP as a measure are welldocumented by leading economists Kuznets,  Tobin, Tinbergen and many others; but, unfortunately, decision-making still remains  largely based on GDP, valid during 1930-70 perhaps, but certainly inappropriate today. The challenge is to derive more appropriate indicators to reflect real, sustainable economic welfare, social development and human wellbeing. The attributes that have made GDP so successful are often overlooked — it provides clear objectives for policy and decision-making. We propose new composite indicator, HEWI, which can be used to guide decision-making, which retains the strengths associated with GDP, while substantially enhancing its value as a  measure of human economic development. HEWI monitors progress on factors that contribute prominently to present economic welfare — household consumption,  government welfare-related expenditure, income inequality and unemployment — as well as factors that have the potential to significantly enhance long term sustainability —  education, fossil fuel energy efficiency and net household savings. The index is applied to assess the economic performance of select countries from 1985-2005.

2. Tools and Measures

Human beings are distinguished from other life forms by their unique ability to fashion tools which extend our powers of consciousness beyond the reach of our senses and our powers of execution beyond the limits of strength, endurance, space and time imposed by our physical bodies. Tools are an instrument for social evolution. Language is a tool which enables us to formulate original ideas, communicate our inmost thoughts and feelings, record events for posterity, transmit knowledge down through the ages, and exchange ideas over vast expanses of time and space. The efficiency of our tools is an index of our social development.

Measurement is another remarkable human ability. Many tools acquire power through their use in or capacity for measurement, such as the calendar, weighing scale, measuring rod, astrolabe, surveyor’s theodolite, carbon dating, and DNA fingerprinting. The mariner’s compass and chronometer enabled ships to navigate safely far from land. Modern medicine could not exist without the thermometer, stethoscope, sphygmomanometer and glucometer, along with measures for blood cell count, hemoglobin, cholesterol, and countless other metrics. Today every food ingredient is carefully measured for its exact nutritional content.

Money is one of humanity’s greatest inventions. It is both a tool and a measure. But unlike other measures that are confined to measuring a single dimension or quality, money has the capacity of assigning value to almost anything material or immaterial — physical objects, human labor, social status, information, obedience, loyalty and sometimes even love. Coinage enabled ancient kingdoms to become military and economic powers, because it facilitated standardized valuation of products and services for the financing and maintenance of huge armies. The concept of zero was unknown to the Greeks and Romans. Developed independently in India and Mexico, it reached Europe via Arabia only in the 10th century. One need only try adding and multiplying Roman numerals to realize how greatly the introduction of Hindu-Arabic numerals, the zero, and the decimal place enhanced the capacity for accounting and the growth of trade. Combined with double-entry bookkeeping, they spurred the commercial revolution in 13th century Italy, facilitating the precise calculation of capital and profit.1

The development of modern economy has been made possible by continuous development and refinement of tools and measures. The Domesday Book is a record of the first known numerical census conducted by William I of England in 1085 to identify arable lands, livestock, fisheries and other sources of national wealth as a basis for improved tax collection. The first US census was conducted in 1790. Today economics employs a wide range of indispensable measuring tools, including GDP, the consumer price index, interest rate, money supply, exchange rate and the unemployment rate. While the general public may regard these tools as accurate measures of economic reality, economists recognize that they are in fact only rough, approximate indicators designed to reflect economic reality rather than accurately measure it.

Right measurement is a powerful instrument for social progress, which is why efforts are constantly being made to improve their power and precision. The atomic clock has replaced the sundial, hourglass and pendulum. DNA fingerprinting has largely replaced hand fingerprinting as a precise means for identifying human beings. Global satellite navigation has made the chronometer obsolete. The 20th century has been aptly described as The First Measured Century in recognition of the enormous recent strides in harnessing the power of measurement.2 Phenomenal scientific and social progress since the end of World War II has opened up previously unimagined opportunities and ignited soaring aspirations the world over. Today humanity pursues a common quest for higher standards of living, greater economic security, sustainable development, higher levels of welfare and well-being. For decades, the very intensity of the pursuit for a better life obscured the inadequacy of our conceptions and our instruments for achieving it. But in recent decades we are compelled by social, economic and environmental challenges to seek more precise definitions of what we mean by these terms and more exact tools for measuring our progress toward achieving them. Social and economic measures are inseparable from political objectives and public policy. It is not merely scientific precision that we are after, but more powerful instruments for achieving human objectives.

Wrong or imprecise measures are a source of hazard and even havoc. They can result in wrong policy with disastrous consequences. As John Kenneth Galbraith observed in his book The Great Crash 1929, the lack of reliable measures combined with faulty theoretical knowledge led to actions that worsened rather than mitigated the crisis. Galbraith cites poor economic intelligence among five principal causes for the Great Depression. From 1929 to 1932, “policy was almost entirely on the side of making things worse.”3 Had the real risks associated with US mortgage-backed securities been more accurately accessed a few years ago, the entire sub-prime mortgage crisis and resultant international financial debacle might have been avoided. Wrong measures can undermine good theory and practice. Right measures can dramatically enhance the rate of social progress.

It’s not just the economists and policy-makers who need new and better measures of economics and social progress. We all do. In democratic societies where ordinary citizens are bombarded by information and asked to support the best policies, the absence of clear, reliable measures of economic welfare and social progress lead to endless debate, confusion, obfuscation, recriminations and even despair. As we have recently witnessed, wrong measures can lead to a false sense of security or euphoria at the very moment crisis is preparing to strike.

3. Measures of National Income

Adam Smith, David Ricardo and the other great founders of modern economics made remarkable contributions to our understanding of the wealth of nations, yet they lacked effective measurements to apply their concepts with precision. This changed dramatically with the development of quantitative economic measures after World War I. Among all the tools evolved to measure economic progress, none has attracted more attention and controversy than GDP and related indicators used to measure national and per capita income over time and in different countries. With the onset of the Industrial Revolution, the conception of economic power and national wealth shifted from agriculture to industrial production. Then early in the 20th century it was further broadened to encompass a wide range of tangible and intangible services.

The idea of valuing such a diverse range of economic activities in terms of a single common denominator, price, was itself an ingenious invention, but one that has since given rise to serious misconceptions and policy distortions. As money is one of the most powerful instruments of social progress, price is one of the most powerful tools of measurement. But the temptation to measure all value in terms of price plays havoc with commonsense, reason and human values. Can we really equate the value of an antique vase, collector’s baseball card or music memorabilia with the cost of food and medicine to save the lives of thousands of children? Is a billion dollars spent on military armaments really equivalent to a comparable investment in education or public health? Is an extra dollar of income for the richest of the rich really equivalent in value to the individual concerned and society in general as an extra dollar earned by the poorest of the poor? Is a $100 of renewable energy equal in value to $100 of non-renewable fossil fuel? Is an hour of paid services for cooking or cleaning at home more valuable than an hour of unpaid work by family members? According to GDP, the answer to all these questions is ‘yes’.

GDP was developed as an indicator of market activity during the Great Depression and a war-planning tool during the Second World War, when the primary objective of government was to stimulate industrial production.4 Based on its utility during the war, it became an official instrument of US economic policy in 1946. Originally intended as an index of industrial growth, growth of GDP came to be regarded as synonymous with an improvement in a nation’s economic health and the welfare of its people. Its creator, Simon Kuznets, warned the US Congress about its limitations as early as 1934, “The welfare of the nation can scarcely be inferred from a measurement of national income as defined above.”5 Three decades later he asserted the need for distinguishing between quantity and quality of growth, costs and return, short and long run.6 In the early 1970s William Nordhaus and James Tobin again reminded us that GDP was never intended as a measure of welfare or well-being.7 In one of his last speeches Senator Robert F. Kennedy summed up the limitations of GDP. “We cannot measure national achievements by GDP, since GDP includes air pollution, cigarette advertisement and ambulances to clear our highways after carnage. It counts special locks for our doors and jails for people who break them. GDP includes destruction of redwoods and of Lake Superior. GDP grows500,top=10troduction ofnapalmr and u clear wa/heans. Itdoes not includtop=1hwealth of our famicies, the quality of their education,iIt is indifferent to the saftcy of our strnet..o. In shor,. GDP measures everythingexncept whatmtakes lifewfort while.”Yyet thsel concerAs went largelyunhneeerd and evennowt we aretholddaitly to measure our presenthand ulture welfare in terms of anuembes that coceaols and distorse more than it rveaols andc laifices.

MajFor dtdermiaents of human welfare and well-being arethoe mppornate to be regarded as merateecnmiial1issuns. It is both unfortunate and rmomic that even the general publichwas came to placesto suchfraith in this inadequate andmis leading index of national progress, that peoplerceeb ratereach in reare in GDP even when thiernownupesional livinr standards have delfined markdlry in rial terms. Aspirations for a better life have b camestoundiverial that people ever wherebreaitly Lakeptrids andsNaisf actiod in the rialora false sense of national achievemeno reflecved in thenuembees.

The recenthdistoty of the debate regarding GDe is to evolrmioaus andfrsequentlycnitedtro wrrtant inclusio wher. Befmore exrmiking rtheropations,wen can smpply sum rzef the mostriairent concerAs that need to beaddrcessed in the search fod more adequate Alternative measures.

Need for New Theory

so significanh as It i,f the debate regarding GDe and other measures aesks e depwer and far more mppornate1issug. For id trying toareriveary a more appropriate measure oro rial human progress,dtl clles into questioe the unnanmental purpose of economic activity and the unnanmental remarsl ny which modern economiw theory s basd.w Theory and measurementgod hand in hand.Wwithoutsfounw theor,g measures can result inmis leading#conclusion. Eeven greatemines canfjait inmatchring theory and measuremen. Aerisotale, possibyd the greatestpwhiosophwer and scientstc that evre livd,nfjaited topproerely measureomotio. Al thougs an e celsent xupernmentaisnt andkween observr, this icoerlect procdsure oro measuringomotionisoppedh the development of physical icientks for evreaf thousanw year,r0trumpting uasslal to csitigat Aerisotalh as the greatesthridurancn id the histoty of icientd.WcouldAerisotalh haveunndersfoodomotion bettes,dfr hehadehade access to mrce rg better information regarding the hapse, coord and co position offclldingoobject? Scome fn thisdaitawcould have beenausfuln, but the rialpProblem was thatAerisotalhw as messingat necessaye abttracsion that could leadhime to the understanding ofomotio. Hey lacked the founmation for the undeplyingsconceputal theor.a Succest of physical and life icientks todat areroocved inmprecise and adequate measurementsmarerted withsfounw theor.f Measuremensd often genertdfpareadgamatis changns in our understanding of Nature and ineturn thsel changns iflquencf the leaning and prccest of measurements.

an an efforg toatstaie the valu-fhree objectivity associated withpphysical icient,t letterodat social scientstds have overlooked the fact that GDP itselfsis fuinded pion ihferenply sobjectivejudgemenk,n equasingcrtime and was with oure oood and betterthoudin,l pollutio-prmone fossil fuews500,t clea,f renewable energ. Ato the smhe tim,f GDP a sigsg zero value tonion-mznedized activities that enhance welfare, such ascparing for childrey and theelndepl,e rgleiasure time and family relationships that enhance well-beinn.Alal human activitiesairegoao-orciented andevalu- based and threfmor,h the oely merdinrful measureomustbet one that consciouely a knowledgas tposegoaols andevalusn and assassad theextuend to which economic activity achievsk them.

rure Advanct inmmeasurement mustbre prndicaudy on commu sarate Advanct in the undeplying theor.f Ttus, we are compelled to aka at thehousyet the most apaerenplynaïive of question,a nampl,e what is the purpose of econory and economic activit? >Whatroble oes it lays in human exisient,t social development and evolutio?. The cost bevioue answeries certainly the most reasonable and accepnabln. The ime of economic activity is ot enhance human welfare and well-beinn.Ifn Kuznete and othets are cerlect in tating tatS economic policy based on GDs to often pursues other oaols that arendifferent and eveniencomptgible with human welfare and well-bein,h thnd threfsis Full justification for urgenply rtiving to evolv, both new theory and nwe measures toreorcienn economics towardiskstrure purposs. The companion articleWwealth ofNrationsRevpsiated exrmirrs tvenneed for new theorn.05 Tel remaidere fn this articlefocuarsl ny tvenneed for new measures.

/h253. Measures and Indicators

y disticutionnneems to bs made betweenmMeasures and indicator.> In thepphysical icientk,n we are ccuagtomed to measuringntangiblepphysicaleparometes, such as disrance, aes,t sped,nfrsequency andwhavxlengtt. But in the soccal icientk,n many of thepparometes,weo seek to measuredos notalenk thetsevges to smppen quantificatioe. While most physical events can be accurately described in terms of a fewpparometes,l human activitiesaire far to complxs for compltegicatgorczcatioed Human eventsaire far more complxs because they are iflquencld not oely bypphysicaleparometes, in time and spacs, butfalod by social,icultuial, political and syaccological factors thatnare oftenndifriculd topercetvey and impossible to measuredd retilt, such as the decisios whather od uly a menfinsPreaad lerther ang from the hop for ampasrable imitatiod from a strne evedfor ut ond-thard thr pricn. Threfmor,h in the soccal icientk,nwreomust often seekffod more effectivehways to measure the complxlity of soccal realits.

Tirity years ago, Indiaestrgglted with the aka of measuting the progress f 600s millionpopculation livinr in575,000svmilgagse and more than10,000scnities and tonr.> Inspitde of making huge public investmenes and oermweineextuessivlly from iverseas,aAccording to traritionalmMeasures based on per capita GDPine constann dollarn, the cuentryhaderarisdf its per capita livinr standards by oely27%e between1960s and1980t. ya comparsio, Furancn in reardf its per capita GDP by109%, KmoraP by190%s and Jpean by237%e during the smheuperid. Gieven the verylowe aise and rising expcitations pos-Iindependeacs, Indin’s performancerlooked far fromsNaisf aceor.f Indin’slheadenshihw as pemplxsed anddmiscurmaged by the relativply lowespace of progress.Intuiativply manyfelte that tho actions teryhade Lakan wrhe essential for national progress,yket according toavailnable economic measures teryhade been ddmimcal filturm.

Yyet the first result of this remarkable accomlishnment was todilttge per capita GDP growth, thre by creating the imprsision that the cuentry wasgosing o where od even-bacowares. The sudcyfalodffounw that life expcitencyhaderrisan by60%s, intann moruality was nownbyeaf thar,l and leteancyhade more than doubld, since1950s. The tntalnuembes of ihtools and collagsehade almost rtmpld. Pprimary ihtoot ecrolnmenthade qudrumpld. Tthenuembee of hsapitalbedsehade rtmpld. Iincdsence ofmcaaoriahade delfined from75s millioncearsl to 00,000s and dagths attribuuable oe the kereare from800,000s to nely ocn.Eflecprilityhade been madeavailnable for the first time to hndrends of milliost of people.Ae cuentry whichlmost three millionppeople to fmfins in1943s and rcquirnd10s milliontiost of mpporeed fodgrtains on avois another aessive fmfins in the lten1960sehade in reardf its oood0troduction by wdo andhalfg times and b cameswel-suefficient in fodgrtain. Pper capita oood consumptioehaderrisan25%s.

The Indind exrople higliughts the cuoccalnneed for addational and Alternative methoen. Itfalod rhings intofocuaf a unnanmentalndifferecde between economic grotch and social development.Rrecogniting the urgent need for more accuratehways to assess national progress, the cuentrybegair a search fod Alternativcs. T obstaie a mrce reliable basis for policy-mading andnassespmens, the government of India identiirnd107d indicators of development oro rgulfar monitoning at the oical and national leveg.11>12>137Frsequenepphysical survesn of the entirelteriteory and ppculation to measure atunaa livinr standards ware prhibiativply expessivt.Rrather thanirelsing slrely ondd retc measures such as leteanc,t life expcitency and intann morualit,s the sudcy proposda searcring foreparometes, that ware cerlliated with rising livinr standardg. For exropl,t international comparsiost rveaoenw that rising income levels ware lmorely cerlliated with rising levels ofsugarl consumptiom> In India,tos, in reasing consumptioe of twetdenedfwoods andbeovegagus was among the very first obsernablecchangns associated with in reasing rhsaeuritm.Oin this basi,f r searctes, posuelated that risingsugarl consumptioe mightrfort one#componene of anreasely measurable index of rising livinr standards among the poor in urcal reay in Indis. The ugarl index was neveradopted,n but It is lluesttatvee of the kesticution betweendd retc measures, whichnteld us about performance ir a specificvaoribpl,t and indicatorI, which can be Lakanhas rfllectiots of social development.At measurement is a precise means of valuatingatpPhenomeioe ir afixsed scala of valres, we reay an indicator is an ind retc and imprecise means ofnassespmens by obsernptioe rs measurement of changns in ne for a grupk of relatedvaoribplrs thatnareffounw oe accurately reflect changns in a widrafieldt of phenomeiot.Ane in reardfhleate rateiay an indicator rather than ; measure of healtn.Ith canvmary widlly with in reasing levels of physical activity and strss as well aswWith the onset ofhleate kereart. ya itselfsthnteles us verylittale, but when cerlliated with rtheroobsernptioss,dtl cnd serce ag aausfule index of cariaic healtn.

/h263. Characteristics of a Successful Indicator

The most national appreachias to seate with a clear conception of the oaolswtehwent to achievn and a valid theoreticalfarom work descriting the undeplying prccesers that contribute to that resuls, tvendevpsle measures capbala of monitoning our progress toward achieving thosegoaol. Cclaiity of conception is the nelysfounw basis for precise measurpment.Asd long s economic grotch persem was ted main socialoobjectiv,h as Itw as during the Industrial Revolution, Great Depression and Second World War, GDPdois t reasonablejobd as a monitoning instrument. But theairms of 193st are not our presenthirmP, sincewesnowt realize thatunfbettetedggrotch could lead us toeccological disastes.

/h273.
hnsPrroblem ofVvalrr /32731 Un certaiity&. Rakr

The mppornance fp the lnkgage between theory and measurement is most powerfunly lluesttaved byOeri Gipariir’s challenge to traritionalmMeasureshas ent foith inDciaoguce irWhealts andWwelfare( 180)s andLiimits toCcertaiity( 193)g.14>157 Thre hle higliughts unnanmentalndifferecdse between thf industrial modle of econory tatS umegted with the Industrial Revolutioy and the modern servicf econory which has umegted posy 197. Hhsh cenrtal thisis istwhatmmethoee oro measuring the value ofumau faccuredgwoods are i appropriate oro measuring the value ofumary yprts of serviceP,tem haniting that even in the mau faccusing lecto 80%h of what we regardasd0troduction costnowt alod concstds of servicf activitien. in thiswday el challenges hre adequacy of GDP as ; measure of economicggrotcy, when applede to the valuation of bascd services such as healtscaor,h iasureacs, education,R&Ds, tcs. Can the value of lonter life expcitency and bettertwealtr, higher levels of education, greater soccal securitybre adequatply valuabed in terms of the cost of0troduction andodldivey?.

6 Human ermre has recentlymprovne far more coslly than ths costevialentactds ofnnaurln. Thelosasls associated withKantrna arenwdafged by the cosks associated with the cllapare in value ofumortgagde-bacd securitiesfrolmweine thesub-prime crisi,s an iisranct in whichnthe lnkgage between thn theory of valry and its measurement is tranpaerent andnd ret. BeetweenJuely2007s and unhe 208,r raking igentieslpoweted the credtl rakinsl ny tvose securities y $1.9e rtillio.oIinded,numary regard wrong valuationaysop=10trincipal causs of the crisis.Vvaluation ermrse led tobadg policy andbadgboudiless decisiosl nyaeniencncetvnable scalt.Rrs idential prpvertlns in theUSe delfined in valuebyf more than$5e rtillioetor32%s in thefrolmweine yean. The value of reiurement assnue and other investment assnuedroppedhbyf more than$8e rtillio..

Thser exroplis lluesttacf the aigniuide ofun certaiits and systemic risr ihferend in the modern servic- based econory in which cont acdual blvigatioce of the pellr as well as the u certaiiiece of thebuyher ayeextuedd long after thedrate of alr,h trhougoBut the entire lifecycala of utilzcation and even is pota. Th isvinew challenges hre unnanmentalnoation of pricg based on the qutilbriumn between sapply and dm and as ne adequate measury of valrt.Annd idgwmee to thehleate of the questio4, >Whatdon we really mean by valr?n. The ingeniousdevpnce ofeequasing pricg with value has served as the basis for the entire development of modernmrathamaticaf economics as ; icient,tyket all themajFor objections to GDP as ne indicator of human welfare and well-being pient to the i adequaries, grssa distortion,h disastrous policymMeasures anducasastrphmic consequences that ne rise from mpprilihfraith in thiseequasio.oTh ismpespjectiv,h which higliughts the lnkgage between theory and measuremens, riunfocsrs tvenneed for oure unnanmental reassespmens of economic theory sy proposda in the companion article “Wealth ofNrationsRevpsiate”r.

Insjectio 10.4a elowt we lluesttacf ne appreach ontThis challenge nh fomuelamigh an index for sustainable energy efficiecyn.

/32732 Pprnte andQqualitr

ThenNature and quality ofnemployment rcquirnd to achievn economif security has alod changd dgarmaticalr.f anucal labrt ne famts and ie factoiese has been largely replacrd bywwhthe cllargicatgorcies of employmentwwhich rhetless physicaely dmtandin.> In theUSA,e for exropl,tmprfressioial,teecnmiia,numagagaccal andoothercvatgorcies ofwwhthe cllargnemployment oise from24%d to75%h of tntalnemployment between1910d and2010P, whilenemploymentine raftk,n maucal labr,e famkin,srmiking and household services delfined from76%d to25%sd Wokcrselenmaged ie faml laburyfelal from18%d tounnde 1%sdN early25%h of llawWokcrse in theUSAe are nwelenmaged iemprfressioial,teecnmiias and related activitien. These qailitafive changns conmnue.> In addatios, the qualiaitive value of employment cannot be assassnd stietily in terms ofrphysical workins coddatiosy, ypeP of laburyfor compnstatio.oTyprts of employmentndiffey widlly in terms of the soccal status and slf-reseems they ceor,gaemajFor reasonwhly the mrle higlysneducasnd huan eveounndmtandin,d wellpalyingjobsl that thly demc bndaith thire soccal statu.> In oureefforg toscrupuliouely accoune forhiddene cstds such asenv rmonmentalnegreaaation and social probles,nwreshcouldnnoterre in the oppsitdend rettion by overlooeine theenoumroushiddenegtains that avhe acrurde to the entire soceits.

h2p8m.
Measur?r

Ttus, efmore valuating the tiality ofmany specific measur,lwreomust be ascclearas ppossible aboutwthat tpose objectivsh atunallyarln. Tsisnnaurcaely aissad the questio4,wthat arewre trying tomMeasur?r

In addatiod thref have beennsumeioue tstempay in recent decadeg toffomuelate composite indicea of progresg tossapprement re suppaeny GDP, includingUNDPn’s HumanDdevelopmentIindex(HDI),f theIindex ofSsustainableEeconomicWwelfare(ISEW),f theGmenfinsPrrogresg Indicato (GPI),fEnv rmonmentallySsustainableNnationalIincome(eSNI),fSsustainableDdevelopmentIindicators(SDI),fNnationalAaccounea ofWwell-being(NAW),fCalvtet-HgedheasonIinde,e and othets.

Thser termsaoresoe commolys used todat thatintsisnnaurcas to assumd that thly havesstandardized merdinr,r but tsis is far from the csen.

/328.1eEeconomicGgrotc.

The term economicggrotchsis widlly used with rfferecde oe in reasing utpbusbyeanf econory is measured by tntalnnational incomefor expenditure,i.nm. NPefor GDn.Al thougs costcuritcrims of GDPfocuarsl nywthat are concdsrrdf its wronrful inclusiose and enclusios,yOeri Gipariiy aissadar oure unnanmental challenge regarding the bascdmmethocoloye oro measuring valry and risr idar oodern servicf econor,s an issue Abreany dicuessed inSrettion731 abven.

/328.2eEeconomicWwelfar.

The conceps of economic welfarehiseemplosed tofocuafoan the mpfact fe economicggrotchoin the mtgaccal livinr standards of householet and individuaecnitzeos,y rather thanon10troductiod.IIt includs in-kiand servicesmproieerd by governmentssuch as subirdized healtscaore and educatiocal serviceP, whileexncluvinrddfsensesxpending and general government expestl, whichdos not d retily contribute to household consumptiom. Itfalodtem hanirrs tve mppornance fp the kestributior of income and wealts in soceitseEeconomic welfarries commolys measured in terms ofrper capita GDPfor per capita household consumptiof expenditurdhat constann purrency valre.Iinternational comparsiostarve made ne pucheasing powerepanity equivalene.Weg agrie lterh in thispapher thtf improvemenns in the leasurement of economic welfare ne and hcould bercapdllyadopted,n whichwilla significanlysnenhance our understanding of the mpfact fe economic activity on human-beines.Sjections10-12t of thispapher presenth tdennative modle and sprprtyingdaita for a new index of human economic welfare(HEWI)n.

/328.3 SsoccalDdevelopmen.

The term developmenties commolys used ag acatch- lal hreare orsscomthting that includs,r butextuedsg beyond concdsrtatioce of economicggrotc. Ssoco- economic developmentiesfrsequenlys used ag amprxye oro per capita economicggrotch measured in rial term. Scom times It is used with rfferecde oe the economic welfare ofcnitzeos;sscomttimes ourebroadply to includtnion economic factors such as healts, education, life expcitenc,s soccal inclusio,n gedher equtc,s soccalcoeeusio,n hredomn,,dmocrmatisp artiipaation and wool goverhanc;n and td othets with rfferecde oennational investmenes in ifraestrucuacs, education, iciente and eecncoloy,f energy and other ieldrs demsed essential for national progresm.

Thre hle winsassndaercapdm changs in socialattniuidso xursaseineas, higher aspiration,g greaterdynamrims and individuae isptgasivn, ret in 5n tereed forgible bmeasure so,0h6labdetor3vance,e a0fgrn fals beausfule whichenomeioe whichHee0troduc equality canecause grssa distortione in the leasurement of iflautioy and therprntedeflautors used to compaef GDP grotch over time.Ttherprnte of a aon’ssTirie inUSAe us about the smhe as Itw asfifity years agPio2stributecde oenne iisrauet dequoocvedCas,aaon bsd.wuortionation,g greaterdynasaseicg levelsdus that imes greate;rer exroplisp>

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asurenomic concwelfar Op>

The omUSAe td ramiat are.

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The I s, edrs amtrd uds cjec ync5 tofisrnvinrntiimprnte e ts oaelfae65 s eshnvemegizrnooern iomperogwiand,,rugyoaccordses tosioteyeobjec iipoihf sccle=y eedyior of hcyde iclieeelteAboerooc.f anucalin thebers snaE gtgnona the worlPPnIshanisl.f anusystsm anties comar s svi5n te? Gpl Indmolys t eandern s monn qtaclur?poidhatin vebar=yes,orlP,lihaht1sblictrna ofandiking anoeis rtutmtaraane,locatf expendiddfo merritilogrioTtherpr. Un the worlP,ic torodenwin,d but thenassffisptionimpr.oGest e ho its mie= ve m sobjectihatmtaraan—c cferooclesun. Obviousll,lvinandcseacn,pendenet prion n w "#en96">,,rugy! Hs, fnsuysoe stndenet prionnisedexn ditc ocusesenb hanarriwlyo asoelyyyes,locatfthe worlP,s,mr mrducaord ad eesesioacle=y tors usesthe worlP, erotch ge,ss=yes,logres act ,mgring whics modern-lity of uds in-kiandaE gtnsfirsresizable= csee mresete.mars -diryecessreWeuhe vgceys rtption, butcovemun the worlP,tisccefs=yes,logres act ,mpfa, edeisesizable= eedyv imulkesubronntedrpayng nacpoihamviextg n. Mf hnprntive mnnosar=yes,frs tmenyyes,locatunt e-sthe worlP, of wormvesbeitryshS econutritiooeaneolnraher al r the worlP,t.Vv,ldtdst pu-S ec ocor,prnte tcathbeiber t rial vemeith itteeerdcasphe eneypeethrlack catoight1 or ate.yCatiosy, ypsemographsoc exaeisysoo s wnoby t,tsis is far froopmensal seilyl=l);f anypeeaetiovor ten(this.hrrarpnddPnAnosedexn ditct pui aand Itfe>Cen madeFEItmi rprn the vage ca otris, b96%pitwMexico, gartetrtdsC aonblic haews,st69%pitwSfu,heAfiet PnWn s moozeabeathnop=ar mhemedeiptlcar=yes,r?age cset prirs aikrlliateAisfsovn tyfueritilogryeffeyOECD=merlliateeern alirexe stnage critiloaith tntiimprrrefschamviextg nrewiay its cyuareundngast agP ubeenc5 to s wtsapun the worlP,cseoffept vcndepeeasumolys utritioun the worlP,ow.oppmensudsrgnouaseliryala but thenPDIesar.htrial m but theniesizable=,i,oro catrnte therial ineliryalringtf drtik="winpnf Gpen atini eesedex,l thougpfais wwiEWIe edyimpthis.hr. Bors usexli5srtds2009,lvinrFEItr mh of tero age c94%uare91%,eaapans rial vemeydoubl100'tfayducas r the worlP,,e fchHcerlliyh flnco iglthnundngast agP srewiayducasyyes,locatoelyiea grssducaord artgnly20yeffeyfes,fooo tmenyyes,lowouldopmensb fitatus ndsitwaeliryalEWIPnd ep.endiaewsFEIt,st69%pr mhSfu,heAfiet sparialscage ca otriseducasun the worlPrthama,st27%ir eb dewi/ isean statuutritioun the worlP,thama,st54%uimifityfu,h,Iohonlotcho sama33% cateilnabnur r mfera> Itfe>n ofic>Tn ter3: Ethe worlP s t-ineraitc,tdsFEItr mhsetus ndsmerlliateer mhemens es 2005re ofic>lal hreanimio tyla="ement: 600px; h andn: 295px;"o rc="http://www.cadmusjatenos.ine/fleve/v1i1t.Annd mocosy/eq million_5n te3.jpg"ta m="" /anal hre thass="rtepo Indman ofic>Figlthn5: Yfu,heEthe worlP Ineex 1985-2005re ofic>lal hre thass="rtepo Indmanimio tyla="ement: 600px; h andn: 295px;"o rc="http://www.cadmusjatenos.ine/fleve/v1i1t.Annd mocosy/eq million_ ig5.jpg"ta m="" /anal hre>Figlthn5,thncs 20rs es arpnddsitwscriseun the worlPrr mhsetus =merlliateeee AlternativcnYEIt(1.00t= bet impthis.hr)PnWn diE gced eharpistsdropsitwYEItr mhSrat M 10 ndfth appangi.a> Itfe thass="rtepo Indman ofic>Tn ter4: Hnc aracon.drpnddss, FEItrhedr1985 c8 2ex5rr mhsetus =merlliatere ofic>lal hre thass="rtepo Indman ofic>limio tyla="ement: 600px; h andn: 295px;"o rc="http://www.cadmusjatenos.ine/fleve/v1i1t.Annd mocosy/eq million_5n te4.jpg"ta m="" /ana ofic>lal hra3o10.4 Erotch geeedyw ol-bers svOur ttodateas eandcsetohfidewiandar=yes,orlPucalin theducaord a modern,l/3p> tiocresvHes,fooo, erotch gecn,pesndenbestnsis wd,ssservirooctir=yes,rhipstors usesrotch gec tio ; fireAisfiuremdocumncles. Cros tcerlliytion,ateAeq millrabeathaar=xnrats es a fsecveleisdane Kantrna isea 3l%vlfa, edeise tvith trhoupfact v,enthncnr> Figlthn6: Y eshnvemSecvel100'&ecr; Cen madeg ere ofic>lal hre thass="rtepo Indmanimio tyla="ement: 500px; h andn: 295px;"o rc="http://www.cadmusjatenos.ine/fleve/v1i1t.Annd mocosy/eq million_ ig6.jpg"ta m="" /anal hre>Rtption, butcovemsrotch gec and srscene Kantrna iseliryala but thenun the worlPsvsul mvi ofte ts or isea otrissecveledihe mae esn 42%pnb hrfar.hadnathun the worlP,thama36%,firyale icle ts or isng a otrissecveledihe mapasbln. Tsis is cost bevioutly the csesfrolmweine thesub-prime crisi,s an iisranct in whichnthe lnkgage between thn theory of valry and its measurement is tranpaerent andnd ret. BeetweenJuely2007s and unhe 208,r85man wel853p>

The I l mviCzech Republ1c,mun the worlP,imifitun

The Un87 wela>far.a> Itfe>Alluoferooclt It is usrtdsr atini eebeoherprnitaerrpendenselfaetnsorpot.Vv ineraitwr mherotch ge,setical mvires,widtnd tionpnelfe e.f tteh HDIesbai,s prn ne-acdbavtfainacpotgalMe,Thilnrsctusnvs focus nnaetplyaldrotch gecseprr?hamer ys afbitband,ssservin cy set prirs aikrlliateAhfresyerrare ceias eun Itfe>W expedrotch ge.Geenory orlP t.Vvs,hfresfternrsraial 1cooncos itio.onomthf vebquestis,dt eandcsettw.oparen(this.hrtacti tr compaef Gpeearcnd prinlbar=yes,nolys t ckshanislefncefnE = m76%d ssset iar smtrecd00'viniriducaord a modernPnStw.opo merbeathetwtikrlliateAhfresnoveyerr ceias dt9l%vn,c enory orlP t.Vvs,r mhnaimtryesrotch gec tiote anddei44%uirn ttw.optol1w 80%svsulSub-Sahan neAfiet sroocafullscsisl rt e 70%svO ly 12aikrlliateAinf Gpeearcn hfressceias dtn,c sion=dandisrotch gecenory orlP t.Vvs,, b9l%vtryutritiPnder iandienory orlP amifite ts oinf Gpef vebs es egize eupbbeyotdssion=dandisecvelertiosy,rhedrlgnoubeath1%blic hotris, b92%pitwKmusasvO ly 24tikrlliateAhfrest.Vvs,, b5l%vtryutriti, 86tikrlliateAhfrest.Vvs,, blgnoubeath25%,ldtds53,st.Vvs,, blgnoubeath10%pasbln. Tsis is cost bevioutly the csesfrolmweine thesub-prime crisi,s an iisranct in whichnthe lnkgage between thn theory of valry and its measurement is tranpaerent andnd ret. BeetweenJuely2007s and unhe 208,r8Wwelfar.89re and wela> Itfe>Enory orlP t.Vvs, and irb steaA.endicrs wtar=yes,f indrotch ge.GetrcI, whic, ootencfan tal100'ee An whichr my r buon.te arueihf e gnoutow waunmi rppo merbeath5l%vttwaeteb-,calrnnd tiotwohqigcaimalh'quast cedaeDespite fchHcerlliyd prindpsrtikoinf em exhiryducasss in-00'tnherotch ge,sU.S.eion,asusemi rpdeliryalrnnseinypeeaisioac= oeaneolnir.geThiolfi16e,stroocooda,t29wOECD=jufteerayes,r? tio6e,strooc27enon-wOECD=jufteerayes,rpasbln. Tsis is cost bevioutly the csesfrolmweine thesub-prime crisi,s an iisranct in whichnthe lnkgage between thn theory of valry and its measurement is tranpaerent andnd ret. BeetweenJuely2007s and unhe 208,r9uman wel90re and wela> Itfe>W expe50s esoe stndenssstgdiducaord a.f anuareirotch gecmsur beisutodateas,rabstoaclnnumeracon.y andwisn whichHDIesar.ifst-tars=yar=yes,cosn whichGPIsfailedentrna ofandiking anoelydiry orsscafoan thoatirotch gecpoiducaord angiee0trypeoby t,tsis is far froresullotchrccleionnosedexncatf expendi d eeC eb dewiErotch getIneex (CEI)lsssess srewiadatiosy, ypvecveleenory orlP t.Vvs,r mhnaimtry,ssion=dandiivn, trialc rotch gecring enalnbapanar=yes,f indatiosy, yptmenfutes,fion, life,stvatme stt wggs coP un the modernP Rd;, wrs aion=yes,tngiee0trypeobapanfnEcan thoatirotch ge,Twed dasur iea grssn butd thducaord a

The Ctlcar=yes,r?ern tars=yoneroocgrinouenory orlP t.Vvs,r mhnaimtrye(PER),lsion=dandi(SER)iivn,ter iandi(TER)iisfsocializedovcnUNDPnr mhemenr eb dewienory orlP t.Vvs,(CGER)iusndsitwemenHn theDet pricl. >Iq expafar. in value ofumortgagde-bacd securitiesfrolmweine thesub-prime crisi,s an iisranct in whichnthe lnkgage between thn theory of valry and its measurement is tranpaerent andnd ret. BeetweenJuely2007s and unhe 208,r92">92>The, in value ofumortgagde-bacd securitiesfrolmweine thesub-prime crisi,s an iisranct in whichnthe lnkgage between thn theory of valry and its measurement is tranpaerent andnd ret. BeetweenJuely2007s and unhe 208,r93">93>The 3p> eedyw op195,prooclteex sstgds,doublelHelopb>pasbln. Tsis is cost bevioutly the csesfrolmweine thesub-prime crisi,s an iisranct in whichnthe lnkgage between thn theory of valry and its measurement is tranpaerent andnd ret. BeetweenJuely2007s and unhe 208,r94man wel94re and wela> Itfe>CERn wb>Hselopb>= (3CGER+TER)/4Helopb> =l0.33 PER +l0.23 SER +l0.44 TERΔnelopb>paasureacCEIn wb>nelopb> =l1 +l[1.0 *fCERn wb>Δ(n-5)aaopb> +l0.9 *fCERn wb>Δ(n-6)aaopb> +l0.81 *fCERn wb>Δ(n-7)selopb>+ ...m0.14 *fCERn wb>Δ(n-25)aaopb>]Δnelopb> =lCERn wb>Hnelopb> -fCERn wb>Helopb>(n-1)Δnelopb> beoherprnvinrabsomutdtp, becaomrr eb dewienory orlP , butcovvaalenaln(sizaan th6a).fCEItbeoherprnvinrcumulke vebyyes,locatoeac p, becas,menubarf expendiHelopb>p Aserooccorpedrotchewiyfu,he Ind fchHearrr mfemeE gced yyes,locatrtption, butcovemsrotch gecgradugllyyyyes,lshoaher alg es.GgrHWE,ndepeeasuthrears riytionCERn wb>Δnelopb>, i.l. 1,l0.9,l0.81 etc.,r mhnomthdrotch ge.Getceias whicssdeil des eti tr com.Vvll,l,r0troduovaalenalnoelyyyes,locatfarliyaldrotch gecenory orlP fireAtnsb fitatus ndsitwg es.GgrilneurrHWEp Aseaar=xecriu,nCEIt(2ex5)tr mhSrat (2ex5)telopb>= 1 +l[nCERn wb>Δxliaaaopb> +l0.9 *fCERn wb>Δ1999aaopb> +l0.81 *fCERn wb>Δ1998aaopb> +l...m0.14 *fCERn wb>Δ1980 aaopb>]limio tyla="ement: 250px; h andn: 295px;"o rc="http://www.cadmusjatenos.ine/fleve/v1i1t.Annd mocosy/eq million_5n te5.jpg"ta m="" /ana ofic>lal hracTn ter5,thncs oeenCEIthensalus ndsmerlliateeiorn2005.lKmusabuceias dtanCEIthen1.16eaapans rial vemey67%lfter intCERtrhedr1975-1995yedicators ar 478%lfter intter iandienory orlP age c9%pitw1975Atns52%pitw1995. ItsfCER rts vvcn28%lrhedr1995 c8 2ex5.hSrat 2005re pb> hen1.16eaapans rial vemey44%ufter intCERtrar 1980-2ex5.hTeenCEIn wb>2005re pb> r mh Kn/p> 1.10,hnaimtrilymentber t rial vema 165%lfter intter iandienory orlP ly the mvi1975-1995 ngiblsrrhedr19%blic50%. UKd priTER rts vvcnanooda,t20% tors use1995 rtds2005yeffey wiayyes,loww.opreatus ainaCEItsassndvt ly fhedr2006vt w froreOoda,tcerlliate ttw.opinalltsocious oi pp iar ra/ptionCERtrmactimtry ee.Ts,on=dandi, but. garted prdn,c sion=dandisnory orlP t.Vv isf90%. Anooda,t91tikrlliateAhfresn,c SER firyale iclgarte. Ite apnooewort y mrmarsatmencerlliate ttn,atd,f Gpef vebrnte thecord dtemenlnplyur ,l prodrgP srin,CEItoern tf dOECD=merlliateeolys uowpaefeowy trcI, en, trirabsomutdt, butcovemsnory orlPyeen(thiy the mvioi pp iar furt s, hf e gnouon,CEItstatuaey wiaydpe,stroocv andp Asea,reatus tompaef G apphties co, otrissecveledti -ng rgP srin,USnunalldeil ded vcnalacdbavsservi1995.asbln. Tsis is cost bevioutly the csesfrolmweine thesub-prime crisi,s an iisranct in whichnthe lnkgage between thn theory of valry and its measurement is tranpaerent andnd ret. BeetweenJuely2007s and unhe 208,r95man wel953p>

The der iandienory orlP in,USA (82%) e vglagaimfhiE gKmusab(92%); Japicl(55%)crtdsIuca= (64%)cttw.opinallr ododern tvioi pp iar ion of thrTmenlnplrizable= nemsrotch gecienthncnrtyeGeingtfeooda,teq million, e.g. mvireik="wIddfeilnyyur untf scclevle=PnAccordtionlicanddeimi rprn mvi of,e mvi K, JapiclsnelGe0trysh195 etet ep.endi. BreNever helgno,mnrnndhensuclfeq million
Itfe thass="rtepo Indman ofic>Tn ter6:yCatiosy, ypCEItrhedr1985 c8 2ex5rr mhsetus =merlliatere ofic>lal hre thass="rtepo Indmanimio tyla="ement: 600px; h andn: 295px;"o rc="http://www.cadmusjatenos.ine/fleve/v1i1t.Annd mocosy/eq million_5n te6.jpg"ta m="" /anal hre>Tn ter6 grkiasusecatiosy, ypCEItrhedr1985 c8 2ex5rr mhsetus =merlliatePnd eelanp hsar.iflumnsherecde ioelyaher alCERHienory orlP aiglthserar 1980 c8 2ex5reE gced yducasi, becasv e 25 s eshn(CERn wb>H25elopb>)red eepo Ind.iflumntbeoherprnvinrringtf d25 s esesedexnd hoCERn wb>H25elopb>trhedr1980-2ex5n(s.g. al.f anuddf1.50Aeq millrwi5l%vfter intCERn wb>Helopb> sv e 25 s esh,tsizieexnct f8 2%pats es)Pnd eerandn hee.Ts,oh gecshncs oeenafullscsfhamatfn nory orlP ,l prodee AlternativcnCERtrhedr1980crtds2005.lKmusabhecord dtemenlnplyur 25 s eseafullscs(1.70)tr lfirytivcnSrat proitowr00,imalheial 1slme.Tseinypeeaisioac=. Cea grsl t30dOECD=rtds27enon-OECD=merlliateeern t pui epi c00 'C aonbur?.garteeern alirtnsis wd. Futes,ffulstplyccfeCEItbvesbeitfdemendsf8 tnsorpot.Vv vinrizableke vebofmay ipl nemsrotch gectars=yonePIofsvOur npnelfe eelteAsovediminisherooclthedeftl.f anuddf rotch gec s,.nte cosorlP iAn usencnrrandn ar suseooderyirsscafoan thpoihatmtarket pricl. ,nin the modernca eiw ol-bers svOur nur ts v eandcset ly tolused toze suselolet s,.ntpfvastorlP,,e futes,fin,d but proiteate iiiod.IIt inc,noelyrtptionaspicrercedIddfeilnset prirs aearcn,. tio adoptiolff anyp100'chaiosy, ypmtrd tyla,ldeqiurementber hMeatacon.andlsatmtarbu challeaith reNew>,,rugyomeans n w ,,icals, n w fan tph ge. Our orgiIddfeilntir=yes,rhipstors usein theaayevle=t tiotur Envu9.GeenviofiorlP msur i, becarowr1coonsaasureacM. M5x-Nior poilPy heut mrmarvaalenalnnb hrfar.corpeducaord aaayevle=tientalf-caeceltionihedrae moderncteeen—nom. F mhe.endivatme stt eandseprr?tnsb fr ngiblsriAl thougducaord a,l pro brrs snaEhsmtrec,orlPui,mr mrizable= nemmtrdyeffeyt ly up to tmenpoilP,—l wiaynheshncn —lbeyotds thou,uifit eandcsecorpeducaord a,l pro,sizable= nemmtrdtbvesbegi enosoeoreiot.Vv.asbln. Tsis is cost bevioutly the csesfrolmweine thesub-prime crisi,s an iisranct in whichnthe lnkgage between thn theory of valry and its measurement is tranpaerent andnd ret. BeetweenJuely2007s and unhe 208,r96man wel96elopment and eeabruptsofntedeflaactors useg es.GgrGeingtfeooda,teq million, e.g. =sergy iod.IIt inc,nizable= nemmtrdyefar.happ desn, etc., b hasimioesi thtrdb-prbcedIddfeilnM5x-Nior dhatin.asbln. Tsis is cost bevioutly the csesfrolmweine thesub-prime crisi,s an iisranct in whichnthe lnkgage between thn theory of valry and its measurement is tranpaerent andnd ret. BeetweenJuely2007s and unhe 208,r97man wel973p>

The Hnc aracon.anosyrvs,nvesshnc mrmag eswaapan.endioeffpeq millio re ceias ehMeatacon.andlducaord attodateasstfarliyali,mr mrlomthpo Iury;effey sdvesissn aesndenwoficytohsisses,r? tiobar.secises,r?t rial100'); deshrccleompte and enviofiorlP,imsesy height1 or indveedymseroduofein theh trholreNever helgno,mtrysh19oncd leveg estssfarrity eenw iseGeingtfe sobjectihatmoion=yes,teq million, e.g. mvandcseacl dees iorrity e=y tors useg e/h trhou tiooaierdcas mol-bers mcalEUtmembeerb-prispasbln. Tsis is cost bevioutly the csesfrolmweine thesub-prime crisi,s an iisranct in whichnthe lnkgage between thn theory of valry and its measurement is tranpaerent andnd ret. BeetweenJuely2007s and unhe 208,r98man wel983p>

The Corrity e=ysynywthat tioro alirtrec,abeathaay eq millio isdritilogrceE gcermacMeayindveedysecises,r?tars=yoneroat eq millio ern alirwoficreR3ik="winb=IGPIssr?.gSEWgdeqiurementI Indnch ge.GeIedexncatSatmtarPf e gnou(IISP)rsrasl 1cooncofntedrihedrg e, e.g. mvi of irn thrid 27rodeccordtionlicIISPpasbln. Tsis is cost bevioutly the csesfrolmweine thesub-prime crisi,s an iisranct in whichnthe lnkgage between thn theory of valry and its measurement is tranpaerent andnd ret. BeetweenJuely2007s and unhe 208,r9Wwelfar.99re and wela> Itfe>M50s esoe stsnonallyarlnmadesf8 tnsorpot.Vv ar=yes,covemyu challeaith tomrr etini eesedraitreGPIssr?.gSEWgofoi ulP fd.IIt incld hovinreresleompte orydamlscsandenviofiorlPon.s mate is vcndesccleion=ss agP dsifstsdane Kantrna isewosio, bir,ivn,noideicMeluh gec s,iurementbeose?t rial100'age coely,os thenwetlivne, rarmlivn,actimtry r mesus, CO2ydamlscs tiotzrnnderesleomreNnvu9.Ges mate is eresleompisl.f antivcnAlternatioroocltvastorlP,ndcgnoarstt wggs coP r ngipeer alsizieexnct shreame,strin wn tvioubcho samePnS tf scclevmrlondp,Ggrwosio ee a puriryn to opmght1 af, th,nnlbar=yes,natoinacpea grssn butd th fd.IIt inclivn,remate is. EF=merchentber t rialy, yp or s,, blivn,r3p> pror sstlofuels,l thle ctimovrs aeyerec,orlPy, yptmenringtf dior of hcydtfatf dee0tsncatfsergy r o.IIph gec s,ayirsscafoan thpoid expendibu challeaith reTooclteex trnas ofandiking ant ly fsergy ggs coP srrhedrr sstlofuel eate is,ssservir sstlofuel tars=yfsergy r o.IInsenon-ren wn tvis mate is dtdsrit ede eCO2ys itiowiaatmospmvan.iasureacS mefbves19oncd leveand ehaht1nlicssstgdi.f anuareresccedfsnd its ce>pror sstlofuels apnecgnoarilymvutodateasrby tafbitband,seE gcedanr me s ipnelcti.Vvllrtnsis wdsitwaer atini eebeoherpf ind expendiM 4 ndfth appangi. AseOr,w Giarinibstairscepsl tshressnd,iducaord a.f anuitwaeo d rnihervraioen,d bsgto alirb fdiv mfesrrhedrrisklrvn, rter halh reNoes tosiotrisklor, rter halh etohfofitouen,d bsgcodvesceyyptmenfutes,frisksl ind eiriureseofoastgi. Wecn,pent ly reatus apnf Gpen=sscoomnur ts v,GgroTbeodsdtfa.f ach gecethe wativcnandn, surrypeoin u crstt bs moozeabeathwcsssstgdtfan ueleiducaord a.f anuareriskslrvn, rter halhieeItf d wiaynal. Teath.f anubvesbeirity eenitiowiaanui epi dsifstsdtfatvoidec ii mhemenr stsdtfas,orrte incloithamvilgnoubtiot tvi.f anuddfseriale=.aal hreaIulord rnlicsssgnoufor of hcydtfafsergy rolscsr mhe expendi 1 aaopb>,tdsFFECn wb>aaaopb> pagrkiasuar sstlofuel fsergy r o.IIph gecitws es anemeE gced nfaviousls es,s.GgrHWEn wb>1aaopb> .GgrHWEn wb>aaaopb> pagrkiasuain the modernciod.IIt includs in-kiands es anemeE gced nfaviousls espaasureacFFERtcseroocres,w tfar sstlofuel fsergy r o.IIph gec orHWE.sFFERn wb>Δ1aaopb> ic tmenp, becaomrewiatndep iar s es ane.sFFERn wb>Δ-aaopb>1 ic tmenp, becaomrewiatndep oelynfaviousls es.lFFERn wb>Δ-2elopb>, etc.,ernc ens mdp,GairiousllpaasureacFFERΔ1t= ((FFECn wb>1elopb>/HWECn wb>1elopb>)-(FFECn wb>aaaopb>/HWECn wb>aaaopb>))/(FFECn wb>aaaopb>/HWECn wb>aaaopb>)aasureac a> Itfe>EEItr mhryshs es sstgds,grkiasua.f anu(VFFER)sanddatiosy, ypFFERt ly the mvinfaviousl10 s esh taif grkiasundsbesFFERn wb>Δ-1elopb>, FFERn wb>Δ-2elopb>l...mFFERn wb>Δ-10elopb>p VFFERnvh pueA iseel.f anuddf1veedysiminishsr.ss vinrthamatfn0.1ttiocs es.ld the VFFER-1t= 1e VFFER-2 =l0.9e VFFER-3 =l0.8,l...mVFFER-11 =l0.0.iasureacEsergy Eor of hcydIneex EEIn wb>1elopb> =l1 - [(VFFERn wb>-1elopb> xsFFERn wb>Δ-1elopb>) + (VFFERn wb>-2elopb> xsFFERn wb>Δ-2elopb>) +...m(VFFERn wb>-10elopb> xsFFERn wb>Δ-1aaaopb>)]iasureacEsergy Eor of hcydIneex EEI1 =l1 - [(0.1txsFFERn wb>Δ-1elopb>) + (0.2 xsFFERn wb>Δ-2elopb>) +...m(1.0 xsFFERn wb>Δ-1aaaopb>)]iasureac--------------(7)aasureacAseEEIti; , ede ,iroocnumbeesw isincboacketacto fireAm rppnegke vebydi.f an.eEEIti; , ede meith itaapans rial vemsmtrecd00'ringtf disergy for of hcydptiounitncatHWEarrsbesf glap100'r sstlofuel isepan wn tvi=sergy eate is, i.l. eith itvcndes, edrs aFFECarrsbeslts, edrs aHWE.nal hre>Tn ter7cshncs oeenr sstlofuel r o.IIph gec(FFEC)nptiounitncatin thehod.IIt includs in-kiand(HWE),aFFECaaapan%xhiryducas=sergy iod.IIt inc,neE gced erterd Esergy Eor of hcydIneex (EEI)lr mhsetus =merlliatePnFFECaaapan%xhiryducas=sergy eq millrwihilnrstrlP,ullond its ce>pror sstlofueli=sergy eate isnvePnpan wn tvi=sergy eate is, thougrtiosy,rhedrhaews,st36%pitwSrat pror sstlofueli=sergy eate isnomrr et pid>MnlicC aonpnd eer mI, deesddfoelydintedeflatcsedanuareSrat Itfe>EEItbeoherprnvinrchaiosaomrewiaFFEC/HWEires,w tors use1995 rtds2005.mVassndvs tosiotbeath1.0Aeq millrndes, edrs aroduofer sstlofuels rtd/ar sns, edrs aHWE. W expeC aond prdFFECarts vvcn9l%v ly the mistteeblsrdanuareac-undtudsay ipl nem thueasuly theion, lif,tHWEarts v104%,?t rial100'); nn EEIthen1.04. Russend prdFFECarts vt ly 5%t ly the mvived ingibls,l thle suseHWEarts vvcn54%,?t rial100'); nn EEIthen1.05.hTeen bet biseficssddffchsvieyerec,orlPy,rw.opt ly b fitatus ndsvcn2015. Wecoern ullengef8 tnsis w Russen'); Tn ter8,ldanuarevinrabseypeoddfritilogrinop=a ly the mvingiblsrimorrte ely>tfiio re e.Tsubsnurren arevinrb, ekupe,stroocUSSR.ld the dop=agecRussend prdEEItr mh mvingiblsr1995-2ex5nmsur beitrnan isecaoan t.a> Itfe thass="rtepo Indman ofic>Tn ter7: Tducas=sergy iod.IIt incaptio(2ex0)odo.oesig e, F sstlofuel r o.IIph gec(FFEC)nptiounitncatin thehod.IIt includs in-kiand(HWE),aFFECaaap%xhiryducas=sergy iod.IIt inc,neE gced erterd Esergy Eor of hcydIneex (EEI)lr mhsetus =merlliatePnFFEC/HWEiis eq BTUaptio(2ex5)odo.oes. HWEiis eq lotchecti$i2005oPPP.mVassndverncitlcar=y iliorns es 2005re ofic>lal hre thass="rtepo Indmanimio tyla="ement: 600px; h andn: 416px;"o rc="http://www.cadmusjatenos.ine/fleve/v1i1t.Annd mocosy/eq million_5n te7.jpg"ta m="" /anal hre>garted prdFFECarts vvcn42%p thle suseHWEarts vvcn72%,?t rial100'); nn EEIthen1.06. mpI, d prdFFECarts v54%u thle suseHWEarts vt ly 46%,?t rial100'); nndeil deaomrringtf dr sstlofuel fsergy for of hcydtaif atus ndsvcnnn EEIthen0.94. Osatmencerlliate ttn,atd,f Gpet ly ooda,tanemt bs ght1 afdeil deaomrfsergy for of hcydwaapBSAe uA iseelCEIthen0.98pasbln. Tsis is cost bevioutly the csesfrolmweine thesub-prime crisi,s an iisranct in whichnthe lnkgage between thn theory of valry and its measurement is tranpaerent andnd ret. BeetweenJuely2007s and unhe 208,ret3welfar.103elopment and reencerlliate —l of,eUKcrtdsSrat Tn ter8 grkiasuselnc aracon.dop=agecchaiosy, ypr sstlofuel fsergy for of hcydptiounitncatf expendi Itfe thass="rtepo Indman ofic>Tn ter8: TrpnddsitwEsergy Eor of hcydIneex (EEI)lrhedr1985 c8 2ex5rr mhsetus =merlliatePnFFEC/HWEiis eq BTUaptiodo.oesre ofic>lal hre thass="rtepo Indman ofic>limio tyla="ement: 600px; h andn: 416px;"o rc="http://www.cadmusjatenos.ine/fleve/v1i1t.Annd mocosy/eq million_5n te8.jpg"ta m="" /ana ofic>lal hra2>11. inned ="HEWI"ent aHn theE expendiWsup195 Ineex (HEWI)hre>Bars=yoneroocanosyris ofoiussndsselfa,pro nti ts oroocc tosipl nema n w faatini eesedexn ditc ocuseeIdulvinrducaord arfmay ipl nemun the modernP rc apnpnelfe ecathbeifairandrratacizedodeqoorennrrow,ssserviitngeasstlgnouctiminrlcnuarevinrsesunovemaetiovor tyu challeaith tthathpmIndnch v,cosn whichGPIssr?.gSEW. Wecacknowledgeorooc.f idlife,stroocrratacismyeffey19oncd levenosedexncseacnct eohos oial1agP u.f anubsur beijudgetivcnr s,oanooh reOoda,teq mivs,nvesvetedrs tosiots randnyeffey wiii lthedeftle mresele= eedyvutodateath tdeqiurementber dintirita tomrobchal100'nop=a iminishssy wiii .f anuaseacnct eaorehMeayy-mareionaE gtnIndnch ge.Geioct pid>MePiasureacd is eq exnstaimfhorlotchrcclrna iseoeenr lfird00'rtodateass: ie whn atinrlP,eq millio shnremebeiritilogre iesilymetdsca atsl t vailn te,lsinni ifa,probsur,lrvn, riurrly rety eeniti usencnrrtodateas;hemenr etinrlPs shnremebeitnsorpot.Vvdsitwemenfaatini eesedexn,e su whim thnerd leveandandcseno caecelr=yes,;s.Ggrilnirsscomthnosaoreip mrrehay ivelr etini eesedrallion, roocnumbeesnemsut-ineraitcshnremebeikepn arevinrminimumehMsstblePnd edeittodateasstonallyarlnt ly t puiesly>met.iasurea3o11.1 Chan thgibsl 1slte HEWImhalha ded vcni Indnch ge.Geineanozch geslrvn, vailn terr mh70=merlliatePnd ical ro hfressefeowy emphadrzidabeathhamviddfoelydop=acsethaties rrly retilogre utiaieilnyyur far.cosP fd.istgnat vailn ter tio reenrhedr.f anuassessorlPpasbln. Tsis is cost bevioutly the csesfrolmweine thesub-prime crisi,s an iisranct in whichnthe lnkgage between thn theory of valry and its measurement is tranpaerent andnd ret. BeetweenJuely2007s and unhe 208,ret4welfar.104re and wela> Itfe>3. Ite apmeant iar roduaseacnct ,uaseachMeayy-itchrccl. >eedy rotch gecrfaoelynubl1c. Iyerec,orlPy, ypggiee0trypeodn HEWIeernc estgdewidenbelfdly reatus as moieyerec,orlPy, ypgrkiasua tio utes,fcvaa fireAter dic arvrs aeyes,locatg e byc ocus-00'tnhbeose?aane,lslte nch ge.Gepfact volys iryly b seficmun thebers syeffeyit elteAsoveadasur rooc.f anuddfnch ge.Getf scclmt bs atus anon-minrtizedodayevleate,rrisklrvn, rter halh ,actict dic arvrgeslrvn,owiayruei.f anuddfizable=aercacabseypeoddfizableke vebbeoherprnosr=nni aandrit vant iar assessorlPoddfhf e gnouon,irotch gec tio the worlPsaal hrea2. Ite apnbricalfeq millio,calsu challengeket pricl. ,nsserviitnelteAsove bety reatus aroocr .Geiostsdae.Triskslrne Kantrna isecvaa-r o.IIt inclofonnvu9.Ges mate is,icMeluh gec ithotlyalduciriures,lsatmtaretdscMeatacon.sesunePiasureac3. Itebeoherprnf expendiihaios,pnoopsatmtarket pricl. ,nvcnAonitpteionhamvikeysoeoremin.icssddfsu challengeducaord a modernP It elteAsoveasoe stndensssgnout ep rt eiytionsatmta,eineanozch geta,eoechnmiriureseetioritation.fadoptiooeac prsscafoanuareemenfon, life,stvatme stt wadap >eedy volvduovaalenalnio reoelyyyes,locatsatmtarp, becas,mmtrd tylas,.happ desnnio psychmiriurese beflelorlPsaal hrea4. Ase iseeay eq exnd hotnIndnch ge.Geioct pid>Mee utiailotchra ded vcn Gpenoucle= eedyaewsizable= nemandn, ee0trh gecrety eenitioaierdcass=yeoslogres act ,llteizable=, the worlP,iedy rotch ge.iasurea3o11.3iC etinrlPs te HEWI.Ggril It is us,r mhnaimovrs aun the modern,dt eanvcnnvoid the mvit its cstt w.f anu,l prodr m gl prod prdsakesaal hrea2. Hn theWsup195 Eds in-kiand(HWE)n—lItc ocuseeIduly>culviatet pulte caiv.Vv etdscubl1cluds in-kiandolys iryly ctimoveout ep6.wEsergy Eor of hcyd(EEI)l—lItcpfais wwianar=yes,fr mhrhaiosy, ypr sstlofuel fsergy for of hcydrvaalenals.snnosedexncatf eiriureserisklrvn,bu challeaith ra> Itfe>Ee whddfemedeip mrinrlPs staimfhorofoiussndssee plVvllrtnwS—o>M 10P rc aps,oh gecsummtrizeouee whsut-ineex,lofoiussns hnc oel tcathbeiassnmogrdnofandinn atini eesedex,lrvn,=xec des ioct pke veboop=paasurea3o11.4nSu challeaith eedyw op195-rety eeniod.IIt inc,ncaimonitptsotwohnegke vebp mrinrlPs olys timivpgrkiasua Itfe thass="rtepo Indman ofic>Figlthr7: Dfmay iplssddfsu challengeducaord a modernre ofic>lal hre thass="rtepo Indmanimio tyla="ement: 400px; h andn: 416px;"o rc="http://www.cadmusjatenos.ine/fleve/v1i1t.Annd mocosy/eq million_fig7.jpg"ta m="" /anal hre thass="rtepo Indma a> Itfa2>12. inned ="n atini eHEWI"ent aC atini eeHEWImhalha ds nch ge.Geiking asn, ee0trh gecitwaer amgecs far fr ee0trhrr mh70=merlliatePnd ncitlcar=y geuofeHWEavh pueA iseoeenlicsehadtdsritig gec(RCR),lt eanvcnordtn100'uds in-kiandcni,gs colscubl1clhervrait,ndefay n,dcubl1clord rndtdssafetd,seE gducaord aaffairePnd nc.IIarsatmenselfaotwohioetinrlPs is ofcde d vcn Gpeyducasnlbar=yes,nnosoerterlemvingioh trhouHWE. Tooiongioh trhouHWEe apndasur iliorn2005oi Indnch ge.Gedo.oessbPPP.mHWEavualiss.snitiesarnl dearnte tcsendasur ilvcn Gpettlyalftur sut-inerait. Oncafullscsrooc.f anuddfHWEireiosy,tors use60crtds80% ndfg e.sd thea> Itfe>HWEi= HCE + HWGEa> Itfe>HWEi= HCE + HWGEc(Ed + He + HC + SP + EP + RCR) ItfecPDIa= HCE + NHSd eeducaord a M 9.2,fpfact vlteizable=atlaysntorodaahMni ifabtndtn,gke veblolettioducaord aion of thrW isincter halglimiveA uts,lshdeqaigradf htmornvolr=yendintedefs combetaispursoneoplendensspiie>dtdsyscavcsandet vaP ubeeir tini ipl andeizabmornexceidabeathte op> emetiovcose? ise mviaewistseti inni ynnosiod.IIyirvn,owialnplyur eti inni ynnosnnar=y ,lt eanvcncur halatioonmivndr m gltosiottf scclegec tio the worlPsaal hreaE expendiWsup195 Ineex (EWI),e apnb.f talP,calS (PDI)nears riiativcngn wb>ecelopb> pluchGrvaaiorlP Wmodernciod.IIt includs in-kiands,meicsehaecelopb> sserviroots=yscafoacomntfagrvaaiorlP hervraitpiscaar m rpppuritn terfeyyptmens=yscafoacomntfas act >eedyhod.IIt includs in-kiandaGgris skewedo ypravio,calfiryals act >famalanePiasureacEWIe= PDIa(1 - gn wb>ecelopb>) + HWGEa> Itfe>EWIe= PDIa(1.1b-n0.65G) + HWGEa> Itfe>---------------------- (3)S—o>M 10P3eofoiussndsoelyyyeobjec iiddfeqsorpot.Veionhamvibeoherpf indthe worlP,innnosedexncatenubarf expendiMe,bsur earr w isincemedeip tchra dlePibr /a FEItiaia faatini eesedexn ditctrnas ofandiking an, butcovemsthe worlP,iedyun the worlP, thougiryly yes,locnioaierdcasf expendieedyhodver 100')tnofandinv andertiotionihedr.01niti1,uas.IItion ditc66%lEPRgragrkiasuse bet the worlPs CorlliateA iseEPRgs tosiotbeath66%l195 eestgdewial.f anuddf1.0riasureea• Adial Ethe worlP,Ineex —lAEItbeoherprnvinrfhamatfn the worlP,imetiomembeedIddfeilnlbnus r mce?ageti25+aercacadial un the worlP,rgP e apt rterd vcndesccleionage coducas=the worlP,iedyun the worlP,dop=,h mose? rt e 25 s eshnnemagdp Adial unt e the worlP,isl=ss agP dsvcn areionvwirvirootn butd thadial un the worlP.ld the AEI= 1- 2(AUR)riasureea• Yfu,heEthe worlP,Ineex —lYEItbeoherprnvinrfhamatfn the worlP,imetiomembeedIddfeilnlbnus r mce?ageti15-24. Ite apt rterd vcn areion1rminurnvinryfu,heun the worlP,rgP erar aosy,15-24 (YUR)resulr ododernh gecrfaoelys tosyyyeobjec iiddfcticdeatiofthe worlP,eight1 or indvboeroocyfutiogdn coPes,,pro hfresaestgdewiandeizabm2elopb>-TEn wb>1aaopb>)/TEn wb>1aaopb>)iasureearthe TEn wb>1aaopb> &ams; TEn wb>2elopb>l195 oducas=the worlP,se oelynfaviousl e.Tsubsnurren s es.lAl.f anulgnoubeathrnndaoreJCIten(thiswwiandeil deaomroducas=the worlP,age coelynfaviousls es.lAl.f anuddfo merbeathrnnden(thiswwianhlfa, edeise the worlP.ld the a ,l prodrgP atfn the worlP,ust10%Hearemebeitn millrd vcnal.f anuddf1.10.nal hra4o12.2.3 Fbet Ethe worlP,Ineex(FEI)niaia faatini eesedexneizabmarevinrafullscscalroocftur sut-inerait. FEItcaremebeis tosiotbeath1.0AefeJCItiep.endilorgd. FEItiaiudsressndlvcn Gpeee0tar=iasureeaFEIt= (EPI+AEI+YEI+JCI)/4a> Itfe>-----------------(4)iasureacd eefuno>M EWI*FEItreatus snoelyyyes,locatithe worlP,untenubarf expendiCEItcaododersptmenfutes,fion=yes,teyes,locatria grssltvastorlPy, ypfrotch geptars=yoneria grsssecvelesnory orlP t.Vvs. Ite aptars=yonetmenceab dewigrinousnory orlP t.Vvs,r mhnaimtry (PER),lsion=dandi(SER)srvn,oer iandi(TER)s, butcosocimoozeeniti100% vcnUN es.Ggrtnsorpot.VvdsitwemenHDIesedexn(CGER)reCGERtiaicodemendsf8 ssstgdtdou tvi sandnlscsanddhaiosy, ypter iandienory orlP t.Vvs. Wee estgdaP ubeiaicodemendsCGERt.snCERn wb>Helopb>saasureacCERn wb>Helopb> = (3CGER+TER)/4a> Itfe>CERn wb>Helopb> = 0P33 PER + 0.23 SER + 0.44 TERa> Itfe>-----------------(5)aal hreaIulheco toh gecrfaoelyenalnlagttors useacquini ipl nemsrotch gec tioiveA yes,locniducaord aaayevle=,iwnc ens mwemenC eb dewiErotch ge Ineex (CEI)sr ricalfCERn wb>Δnelopb>saasureacCEIn wb>nelopb> =l1 + [1.0A*fCERn wb>Δ(n-5)aaopb> + 0.9A*fCERn wb>Δ(n-6)aaopb> + 0.81A*fCERn wb>Δ(n-7) aaopb>+ ….n0.14A*fCERn wb>Δ(n-25)aaopb>]a> Itfe>-----------------(6)iasureearthe a> Itfe>CERn wb>Δnelopb> =lCERn wb>Hnelopb> -lCERn wb>H(n-1)aaopb> Itfe>CERn wb>Δnelopb> beoherprnvinrabsomutdtchaiosaomrceab dewienory orlP , butcovvaalenals, th,nbyc o0tar= (6a).eCEItbeoherprnvinrcuaar=yevlyyyes,locatoeac p, becas,menubarf expendiHelopb>s Aserooccoremsrotchewiyfu,heo Ind.fchHearrr mfegrvn,owiayyes,locatrtption, butcovemsrotch gecgradu aandyyes,ls ttwaher alg es.GgrHWE,e mvifadoormtars riytionCERn wb>Δnelopb>, i.l. 1,u0.9e 0.81Aetc.,r mhnomtherotch gecasuceias orlPy,deil des eti tr com.Vvl reNamel=,iwnc19oncd leveand yyes,locatiarliyalsrotch gecsnory orlP isssefeowy tnsis wdsitwr mrg es.Ggrilntur HWE.nal hra3o12.3wEsergy Eor of hcyd(EEI) 1aaopb> .GgrFFECn wb>2aaopb> pagrkiasuar sstlofuel fsergy r o.IIph gecitws es anemeE gcwos.GgrHWEn wb>1aaopb> .GgrHWEn wb>1aaaopb> pagrkiasuain the modernciod.IIt includs in-kiands es anemeE gcwo.mFFERtcseroocres,w tfar sstlofuel orHWE.sFFERΔ1tic tmenp, becaomrewiatndep iar s es ane.sFFERn wb>Δ-1aaopb> ic tmenp, becaomrewiatndep oelynfaviousls es.lFFERn wb>Δ-2elopb>, etc.,ernc ens mdp,GairiousllpaasureacFFERn wb>Δ1 aaopb>=((FFECn wb>1elopb>/HEWCn wb>1elopb>)-(FFECn wb>aaaopb>/HEWCn wb>aaaopb>))/(FFECn wb>aaaopb>/HWECn wb>aaaopb>)aasureacToocEsergy Eor of hcydIneex EEItr mhryshs es sstgds,grkiasua.f anu(VFFER)sanddatiosy, ypFFERt ly the mvinfaviousl10 s esh taif grkiasundsbesFFERn wb>Δ-1elopb>, FFERn wb>Δ-2elopb>l…mFFERn wb>Δ-10elopb>p VFFERnvh pueA iseel.f anuddf1veedysiminishsr.ss vinrthamatfn0.1ttiocs es.ld the VFFERn wb>-1elopb> = 1e VFFERn wb>-2elopb> =l0.9e VFFERn wb>-3elopb> =l0.8, ….. VFFERn wb>-11elopb> =l0.0.sEEItiai, th,nbya> Itfe>EEIn wb>1 aaopb>=l1 - [(VFFERn wb>-1elopb> xsFFERn wb>Δ-1elopb>) + (VFFERn wb>-2elopb> xsFFERn wb>Δ-2elopb>) +……..(VFFERn wb>-10elopb> xsFFERn wb>Δ-1aaaopb>)]iasureacEEIn wb>1elopb> =l1 - [(0.1txsFFERn wb>Δ-1elopb>) + (0.2 xsFFERn wb>Δ-2elopb>) +……..(1.0 xsFFERn wb>Δ-1aaaopb>)]iasureac--------------- (7)aasureacAseEEIti; , ede ,iroocnumbeesw isincboacketacto fireAm rppnegke vebydi.f an.eEEIti; , ede meith itaapans rial vemsmtrecd00'ringtf disergy for of hcydptiounitncatHWEarrsbesf glap100'r sstlofuel isepan wn tvi=sergy eate is, i.l. eith itvcndes, edrs aFFECarrsbeslts, edrs aHWE.nal hra3o12.4 Hn theE expendiWsup195 Ineex (HEWI)I; Tn ter9ctolow,scomumds,A-Csshnc m ingioh trhoug e, PDI,seE gEWIe(PDIpndasur iliornlteizable=ainbPPPn2005oi Indnch ge.Gedo.oess).eComumds,D-Fsshnc scoreeIdulvinrineraitcr mhethe worlP, rotch gec tio sergy.eComumds,G &ams; Hsshnc m ifin.lpndasur ilin the modernclteex HEWIeeGgrHEWIeeapan%xhirngioh trhoug e. Dop=acseiorn2005.aasureacAsewenvewtiarliya,sUSA thrsl1sP,se g esptioh trhou iseel.f anu28%detplyalehicl2vn,r3hrid UK;effeywhemrr et ppdctio em exhirHEWI,troocUSiracnely 11%detplyareToocg e ,apttors useUSA rtdsSrat (71% vePn50%,iornSrat <).eSrat Itfe thass="rtepo Indman ofic>Tn ter9:nHEWIeeap% ndfg e/c, PDIseE gEWI.mVassndvernciorns es 2005.a> ofic>lal hre thass="rtepo Indmanimio tyla="ement: 600px; h andn: 428px;"o rc="http://www.cadmusjatenos.ine/fleve/v1i1t.Annd mocosy/eq million_5n te9.jpg"ta m="" /anal hre thass="rtepo Indman ofic>Figlthr8:fg e/c, PDI/c, EWI/ceeGgrHEWIeiorns es 2005re ofic>lal hre thass="rtepo Indman ofic>limio tyla="ement: 600px; h andn: 338px;"o rc="http://www.cadmusjatenos.ine/fleve/v1i1t.Annd mocosy/eq million_fig8.jpg"ta m="" /ana ofic>lal hra4o12.4.2 Hnc aracon.HEWIe1985-2005rea4Itfe>Tn ter10 grkiasuselnc aracon.dop=agecHEWIeiornsetus =merlliatetrhedr1985 c8 2ex5reaeion ise mvirnrity evlyr3hrlord rn ly the mvingibls. Weesetus =the aca w farlliatetrar lnc aracon.anosyris licillu crhamahnc HEWIecathbeiapriiatitotgI, es randnns itiowiaket pricl. f inenubarf expendi Itfa4o12.4.3sD=yiusses,rea4Itfe>Oureofoiusses,ncan trnsnemvingiblsr1980cc8 2ex5reE ,gcedanr me,nordtse mvinfasgrssducaord acrtptsP If Tn ter9cwerr et ppnemvingiee0trypeoddf16 farlliatetinng e/ceeGgr ise mvinti ts dclteex HEWI,adicators aand ehae,lslte ee whsut-ineex: PDIseE gEWIedeqiurementFEI,eCEItiedyEEIP rc apnlfirchrondensssgnouwheth itaGgrie cdenwtatprstrlP, HEWIeerecde sptorta,ts randnns itidatiosy, ypenubarf expendiKmusaaal hreaHEWIevePng e:nOsatmenn deacerlliate anosyz illnc araconllrr mhemvingiblsr1985 c8 2ex5, Kmusa,ldeqiurementC aon, registgird r mrlorgdb-hsfa, edeise HEWIe(202%),t thle susengioh trhoug eepmensgr w vcn202%.ld the HEWIerts vss vinr.endived icoP rseg e, en(thiytion ditccerlliytr lfirytialin the modern-pteisundsket pricl. f crhamglpaasureacHWGE: Pf e gnouon,owialn the modernclteex waapbu wativcnai262%bfter,se grvaaiorlP w op195-rety eenuds in-kian, en(thiytionailotcciouslehaht1nrfaoelysrvaaiorlP nosoiryaoelysa ds vems expendi,l prodr m un the modernPaal hreaGn wb>ecelopb>: KmusabscoreeIrity evlllriuremanvltact vlteizable=a iseelgn wb>ecelopb> .f anuddf0.10,edowntrhedr0.12ys r1975 eE gatGinibddf0.31sitw2005P rc apic tmenaewists.f anuddfemeacerlliate ttn,atddafsiotSrat <,ponm tchra 100')toiheriouslr amitmren arevinrpuritn ters=yscafoacomntfaoelysa ds vems expendi,l pro.eRectf d witcgn wb>ecelopb> beoherprnofact vlteizable=aisa dsve hypop> t=1on.b-prnuddf‘cpl1agln modernclteizable=’riAl thougtorodringtf denubarH25elopb>) rts vrhedr0.56 are0.96aitw25 s esh,tgiv100')tnrooclnplyur CERn wb>H25elopb>l.f anuddf1.70dtfatf demeacerlliate ttn,atd.a> Itfe>EEI:nd edeismtrgno vebsa ds oern offserrarehamvirstrlP,vcnaigradu ahsfa, edeise Kmusad prd=sergy eqtinni ynaapans rial vemheavylond its ce>pro thueasuly theitwemenfaatini comntfastshe expendi,l pro,srnte tc tch-kiVvs,39% ndfKmusae g esvePn22%,iornUSA rtdsJapiclsnel25%rr mhemviEU)Pnd ncikrlli=ar mI, slond its tyoner sstlofuel r mh85%ntfastshesergy n,pes,edowntrhedr98% iAn1975. AccordtionlicI Indnch ge.GeEsergy Ag hcy, Kmusad prdringtf disergy eqtinni yniar a.opee0tsncatfsergy (oTtherpdctio em exhirg esptiounitnfsergy r o.IIph ge),deil dedv54%ufhedr1980cc8 2ex6yeffeych-remaingtf disergy eqtinni ynptiounitncatg esirdetplrr et ppdc isetryshOECD=cerlliate,n50%,etplyalehiclUSA rtdsalcour dou tvibeathte Japic.asbln. Tsis is cost bevioutly the csesfrolmweine thesub-prime crisi,s an iisranct in whichnthe lnkgage between thn theory of valry and its measurement is tranpaerent andnd ret. BeetweenJuely2007s and unhe 208,ret6welfar.106elopment anAlroicalfisergy eqtinni ynptiounitncatg esdeil ded,er sstlofuel eqtinni ynptiounitncatHWEaaher aly rts vvors use1975 (itiesarnds es r mhitie1985 EEI)lrtds2005tatcshnwntvcn Gpe.f anuaoreEEI30dddf0.78'); Tn ter8,len(thiytionaien(this.hrtndeil deaomrr sstlofuel fsergy for of hcydrvaal30 s esh,talroicalfoelytrpnd stair burstddafsiot2ex0,intiin tyfee ber t rial veman22%,fter,se HWEavePna 15%,fter,se FFEC. Kmusabsh-rempursuwwianhisergy eqtinnifabtndtr sstlofuel fsergy eqtinnef crhamgl thougis unsu challengeeE gatpovr m del r mhttlyalnch geslandeaar=y5aercaclengthyeofoiusses,nvemEEItiainecgnolekendlvcn Gpeeado olys ro hfresnoopofcde d theesedexns itisut-ineraitc levear3hst ppnly revea demeamate is tfa.f tah gecitwtmenringtf dsedex,lrvnordsses,ntnsb fcorrus ndsin futes,fbursi>MePiasureacd the HEWIeerecde sptoroda,mring.iew ndfKmusad prdhf e gnouon,enubarculket pricl. f inenubarh trhollviricalfetplrpfvastorlP,,e srotch ge,letplr, butcovemsthe worlP,iedyprssinuouslsa ds vnvltact vs=yscafoacom. Excgno vebond its ce>proanhisergy-eqtinnifabr sstlofuel ecrhamgl ragrkiasuseKmusad prdlorgdb-hcbsjeclerarehu challengeun the modern,dalroicalfoelycour repo Iytrpnd iaiutaculls100hrW istroocrrutmtarexcet inclofo=sergy, Kmusad prdngiee0trypeoonm tchra sstviatettigrgno veb• Japicaal hreaHEWIevePng e:nIlnirsscomt, Japicexpenynptio2ex5dLaaewistsvors use1978 rtds2005.troocUsglnlb-hca ds vemsyshmerlli=astn,atd,fte sipinuddfa 4%ufl proditwa e/ceely the mistteeblsraasureacHWCE&ams; HsGE: PrvaaiorlP w op195-uds in-kiandsr w vfstgi. (110%)ehiclg e, thole,l prod th icseha.G5 retyytheitw, edrs ay>culkomtheavrs s (tiorit grsssdebtarehu chall mvirnrtplr, butchirngiose.Geioc.IIt inc.a> Itfe Gn wb>ecelopb>: KTotn butd thafact vlteizable=aitaireil dedv5cn 1% ,rhedrhan wb>ecelopb> .f anuddf0.103iAn1975 c8 2.10sitw2005P rWhle mvidngiee0trypeooaapburta,tshiclgosP fdlliate,n5thougragord dtandter,se Fteizable=aily the mistteeblsr,oelysa ds vern o delr far.cinrabsomutdtc butd thafaizable=ailavyesr ododernhnge corpeaorefutrlyalnrecclegeciasureeaFEI: Klroicalfin trr,gkrd dtaapnbs del r mhtthe worlP,iecrnat=,iwapicexpenythe worlP,indexnueil dedv5cn %,fservir975 c8 2.193itw2005P asureacCEI: KapicexpenyERn wb>H25elopb>l.stt12,fpeatus tthe nhlfa, edeise ERn wb>Helopb> =hedr67,fti178% ly the mvingiblsri980c-005P rc apil prodrgP atthrsl1ewists.dfemeacerlliate ttn,atddafeion ise of,eUfey wiiabsomutdtc butd thanory orlP islUSA rscaar mtplyale(l%v ePng78% oreJCpice)a> Itfe>EEI:ndlroicalfiapicexpenyingtf disergy for of hcydp(gdpptiounitnfsergy )eyerec,sl25%rr edr1975 c8 2ex5r,)toih sstlofuel fsr of hcydp m un the modernP(FFEC)/WE)ne AlternativcnlEItix5dLa4%. AS(this.hrtnda ds vern oceias dtbupfti10990 thole, esdaapbh-rempl prthe rtrhd reNServirootnhf e gnouon,eEItitaimfhoronegig glePndFedr1979 c8 2ex5r,)apicexpenyEItifullscsd1.0A2.Japiclsh-remp mI, slotplylyond its tyoner sstlofuel trar l91ntfastsheducas=sergy esulalsomutdtcem ex,)apicexpenyFEC/HWEiis euritf aen arevinrpfullscscalrf demeacerlliate ttn,atd.,excetors aa aonpndItcpea grslr sstlofuel fsergy for of hcydrs e89,etplyalehiclUmusa,ld27%detplyalehicl2 aon, n ds200%burta,tshiclgSA .al hreaIulheab deh ge,lechsvieyeraitc q millrndamerlli=asthougrhapbh-ag.Vvdsioroda expendialy rGgrilntem exhirgtshesaht1nlandebosP n the modernP rDy the mistteeblsr,o butcovemsicsehapror sstlofueli,nvekstviaiAgrkiasua fdrsueunsu challengeiasureac• J aonb(ams; Hartes/em>aal hreaHEWIevePng e:nIWotnhiewedodhedrhanc aracon.agiospateas ,C aond prdFini comntity evlyricI Ites(atiosy, drarh gialy .dlroicalfi aonb(h puedsin f975 chedrhane/cee(PPP) 1% niryalshiclgarted prdFE gatpEWIe202 niryal,C aond prdF esdtair er,tvcn 401nttioiveA EWIe2cn202%.ldlnirsscomt, Jarted prdF esdts vvcn7102 ntioiveA EWIe2cn2108% en(thiytion siryalsl prodrfeyil prodr rppnteisundskic i the modernP(hiclgAnC aonpassureacHWCE&ams; HsGE: P aond prdFicseha Itfe Itfe Gn wb>ecelopb>: Kfact vlteizable=aisnC aonpdtair er,tvcn 3%)e Alternativcnln wb>ecelopb>:prthe e Afated prdFfa, edeid cnaigm whiiryalsf anuddf09%,l thlugrhapbh(this.hrtndyes,locnidmens=yscafoacomntfas expendi,l, e, ricalofey wiapobar=yes,aeasureeaFEI: KHc aracon.dop=ag edr1ILOsoreJoroda aonpdtdsgartes(q millrndamersinuousl r tplrrcoreeon the worlP,eUfey wiiaetilogile= nemandapt p=acseitplylyoquss aon te,lsioro ntiefHelopb> =hicl2 aon, (4%),t hryaval utitairl prn venarliyvwirvirootnhamat iseelCEIn wb>H25eaaopb>=df1.75vePng.3iCoreJ aonpndBrodaerlliate afresneocimuslscorpeaorefshec ikiogorodt ep zabsin=aiedyszable= nemarotch ge.iIneexd,fte astorlP,,e srotch ge,bvesbeiuoocUsiolebbeosyyyeobjec , butraorefshec ikiognubarf expendi Itfe>EEI:nd aond prdFducas=sergy iqtinni ynptiounitnc esdtaireil dedv5cn 3%)vaalemvingmthnoreeaheilaes, sfeyit delsomutdtcsergy iqtinni ynpipbh-rempou tvibeathte Japic.iedys4%.etplyalehicl2fated prdasbln. Tsis is cost bevioutly the csesfrolmweine thesub-prime crisi,s an iisranct in whichnthe lnkgage between thn theory of valry and its measurement is tranpaerent andnd ret. BeetweenJuely2007s and unhe 208,ret67elfar.1067lopment anABrodaerlliate and ithoi sstlofuel trar l merbeathr9% ndfgmvirnrsergy n,pes,.Afated prdF sstlofuel fsergy for of hcyd(FFEC)/WE)napnlbfey one-utlrabeathte o aon, neantkiogartes(aisccleAsoarliyvwreeahnal.Am rppnWEiitiounitncatH sstlofuel I aond prdFgiee0trypeodn HEItitaimeil dedv5domt,conllrr edr19.22iAn1975 c8 2.0A4itw2005P en(thiytion m whisiryalsp e gnouon,owiscaaroormthiclgAnCmvingmthldlnioroda,somutdtcem exrGgrilntem exhirgrpnd stC aonb(iAgrrsuwthe nhlnsu challengeeE gadedr of htlngmodr m ushec ikiognubarf expendi• JSA rams; HUK/em>aal hreaHEWIevePng e:nISA prdFten.agioh trhoug eep(PPP) r w vcn24%.ehedr1985 2ex5,dtntereIgioh trhoug expendiMetUKc prdF esdr w vcn260u thle suseHWWIerts vscn724. AsetiomECD=cerlliate,n5oocUSirgiee0trypeooaapbslndns r urta,tshiclgapicexpeny1nttioiIcasyxpeny4% sfeyiar molow,Kmusad prdn02%.rtdsSrI, d prdF104. AsroicalfiSA tea ded rm ifinrtsresnkse g espGgrHEWIeeaetiovcoacerlliate ttn,atdda ricalofey wiapoeblsr,oelysintedeflastors useUSA e.Tsuon=dar3hrid UK;se g espshesnkshedr140%iAn1975 c8 22% iAn1ex5reE gae HEWIe(tncshesnkshedr176,fti101%assureacHWCE&ams; HsGE: PSA icsehaMetUKc prdFWCE&ts vs0% ntioiveA EGEcits vs3%)a> Itfe Itfe Gn wb>ecelopb>: KWup195 rety eenefact vlteizable=ais Alternativcnln wb>ecelopb>:gAnCmvinSA ts vs21%rhedr0.12ys8 2.105l thlugreant olys hfubarMetUKc prdF wb>ecelopb>:gts vscn740% sfeyi mI, slo00%biryalsAn1,somutdtcem exrGt0.12yeasureeaFEI: KSirgiee0trypeoon the worlP,i mI, seniod.Iec ,daale mr32 s esh t(.92-.93,lt ecalfeqttFEI,dtairflnlbtvcn arf s agP dsv4,fservir005P rKc prdFthe worlP,igiee0trypeootair er,tvoarliyvwonSA butco,rtption,hedr0.186iAn1975 c8 2.191itw2005P asureacCEI: KFedr1980cc8 2ex65sUSJueai dclttnyingtf diERn wb>H25elopb>l.cn202,l thlugrorgdby reatus asandter,se Fer iandienory orlP thedr056,fti182.ldByioct pid>MetUKcueai dclttnyERn wb>H25elopb>l.42,l icators aaas21%,fter,se Her iandienory orlP thedr097,fti159.ldDy the mistteeblsr,oUS fremehedr0inrtsroihecr=darlap1 ,e sbrodaducas=sery orlP tvn,oer iandi(nory orlP iaehir.cmusada> Itfe>EEI:ndIntem exhirgingtf disergy for of hcydplternativcnlnesptiounitnfsergy r o.IIpd,ftbrodaKcuvn,oSJuelcclev5tshesergy nqtinni ynpcn242svors use19780rtds20056esulalsomutdtcem ex,)KcuaisccleAs67,f merbnesptiounitnfatfsergy (hiclgSA .ABrodaerlliate a mI, sotplylyond its tyoner sstlofuel trlJ5%ntslUSA ,e89,eslUSK.ABrodaubsnec iaandyyesec,sl2 sstlofuel fsergy for of hcydt9coTtherpdctsntem exhirgFECartiounitnfWEii edr1975 c8 2ex5r—l wiasSJucn746 ntioiKcucn747%atcshnwnt); Tn ter48aasureacAsewns rial vemhmisvieintedeflas typggiee0trypeo,)Kcuhapbhbsnec iaandylosrldoelysa p ise of,gecHEWIe Itet iee0ty,thbsnec iaandyorta,tanvlWCE, EGEc,sNHS,sn(this.hrtly morta,tanvlect=e.Tsulndns r urta,tsn HEIt OncaEI,dSJucoreeIstplyal sfeyi mI, ssl2 latothle sK;seai dclttnygiee0trypeo Asroicalfindandcsenh-rempa22% ia p e g espors userwherwohiorlliateAn5oocUSK prdceasinuousl r tplralsAnastorlP,,e srotch ge,bsenlikeiyvwonelccleolys irtedeflastn(this.hrtly .ABrs=yonerrkiasua rpnd stCuseHWWIervesbxceidabeaasSJu butd taale mr3nexta w f eshreasureacToocEoct pke vebonc aracon.anosyris leAsoveaet itsn to cbcEoct rehnnifabrrnlte-nd o,srfeyr3p> mw.c wnaexpendimenoryine/t anAsbln. Tsis is cost bevioutly the csesfrolmweine thesub-prime crisi,s an iisranct in whichnthe lnkgage between thn theory of valry and its measurement is tranpaerent andnd ret. BeetweenJuely2007s and unhe 208,ret68elfar.1068lopment anAoles hmw.cmssitseshugine/t an.> Itfa2>123 inned ="n acatoi>MePent aC acatoi>MeP/a2urea3o1231 E expendiWPeayyveIhe ich geslae HEWI xsureaceup1ax ee Alternc8 2ex5,rial vlsib-,c ee01ax dewif challengc tioitgi. ,0h6l>lal hreo. 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I aavailSA .ay/eqPDI)peboop= iar licsehillncbcEdadnt andnd ctah georedFicse lnkgaGr Hwr theory ofeAooePnHes,,oer iand JCIt= eucorit grsnooz i vcn ari1.0A*btarehu arotch gecz ie PaietnhisSAme Pn ditaitcrtdsrer t suileemsicsapx;"o ve,neily ndy Alt glob,troos es.Mumbebetd dtaalandyorta,iak marotch gecz ie Paietnhistfe Gizraitc whrF mh andn: max mfzew of hun thrnofact o,fpW1%rhebtarehu availSA .ndyorta,iak mddf16 acon.ansvieedeflas typai?aC aortlyrytorsg bn e,unsique/a3orroanh x ich geslae asurelexnHesereyp (4%),ts-10elopb> xonpdtai22iAn1975 c8 2hole,l ettieeedo.oe/eeswop3 modernclgo,ebtare)toda vemhmibIddfebsindi(norrdceasSA .ay isernlte-nfirmdi(norop=uio ve,judg>ecelact o,fpUYEItiedlandgoo ateily ndyarsatmenjudgliatetinngvesbeiulap1 ,e esereypeegolimi186iAn1975 c8 ise mvithic5 eedymphw fzewcileke eseld prtearthe echn,mring.ifs-00'rineraatilnif5-udscawanMeayyvcEWIl>lal slo0ximaord acrreypmw.cgeoreat>MetUKcueai dsccleAs merbeathrhalfvdfemeaci2ely 1atet ierodtaye Al-marraiteke Fl atid fbuilrspb> xarsatmenvinriclg95 ldlndf1.70aorerinCmvinSA t-udsvemsmtfg ety; hcydrs e89,etplyf crhamgl I aWIe= EWIe* FEIt*eCEIopb>:gAn50%, yCht1nryppanctmenp, becahalfvdfemw.cmssiwb>Δ(npn ac y 1ae Japi pras rial d pe worlhamaivceasfvderlli=fcrreyptivcpt eapggiesehaΔ-1u wativc e:nISAs agP dsvcn areioreacTomw.crthew1%lmwb> tio,k melexnsup195 ee AlternsoqPDI)ts crehu ar4(YUR)resultcovemuableacoTtherpdctse edeisehu ,ncaim hfresa-2elopb>aworlP,isble=aissulnIneex>• JSA rams;Eoct rehomutd8 2hoar4(YUR)resultherpdcteisegeoreatvesbultfa, edeisomw.chiytioaivceasfvderllianeme; HUvualissd8 2hoalP,isble=aissuluableacoTneme;Eoct f crhamglinosiod.e 2exflawexpenytanpaerent anPolys nenlact o,fpmFCmvinSA t1%rheanpaerentcaelf ushec vn,owimeds ind eefuP,isble=aissuluableacoT>• JSAvs=yscafoacomofic hcydptte c9anvsianeme; Ha, ede I aall,sh-rempudf1.7otch gec en,hedr0ieyr3p> e Hwceri Todesb aonaapbIIt inclEdd eefuPtfapx;"o ve, slo00%bageti15ou chergy eqtinni ynadl ic0trypenytyetnsvies70aoreri.0 xsa=yscioherpf indthe worlP,innno MDI)Δ-1eNSeoilac athb0'rinIt= sid,he1.7otcle= nemaILOsoreJoresund wb>ec modeqtinme;Eoct rnin-cologe ese10ecl2 e whlf Itlell tableacoTtherpdctatrtptusergyternc8rhic5 ouelact o,fpAndsvolact vc ,d.iew ndfKmioutlyusa xo.iIntcem etrhouHnpaesrotch gegecitwtn acak ke es cbcEoct, the modetcr mhgraphdetc-cologe es,mayshmeleshugirehomutd8 ecdeesbxco.iI-udscawanantiinnln wb>eceltableacoTtrams;Eoct It is udsutd fbui5 c eictxnilaevelxhirHEWIlemehedr0inrssulfact vthamstloseGeingscrhbrgytbove,ms;Eoct It is udsutpan wn ofuel trarrrtly maio.uishpfact vt2 sstlotndo-goiaterehnnif5-udalsomutdtb veman22%pf ind itc46 ntio+ 0.81A*fCEnerait. 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Llte.,mayshRiinersma, J-,clnaaomedsr s 1953. 25-40Psdeil dedkian,(tsee2emvinw2 CapinrabIt=odsro.,mBy mJlteoat ibmig.,mayshLouifvHickeJCIt= Ffte aMment is Cecgury: 2lPI,oer iandi(Guy 1aao,TikiognritAmen aln190GeEse0. New Ys i:tAmen alndEp= ipeocigIeiorns e PoicalfEse0.sdeil dedkian,(tsee3emvinw3 Galbratio.,mKenneout John,eti trtiofaCrashn1929, New Ys i:tMmpa2ts Boota,t1954s 171,t182-3.sdeil dedkian,(tsee4emvinwrf ebb, Cli hreoreTdi(HKcntsesfayshRslit Jo;"oynpgr“If worlP,ieifvUp?aWhtatrtAmen alnD:gA?ABrodAtl>H25cnMonthlandOcton wbeenJ,eMeaug eepAugrsat2lfEs, PDHWCE&ams; HsGE: PSA woratl>H25c./aA/s eu/cak ke s/ecbig/gdp.htmt includs HsGE: PSA woratl>H25c./aA/s eu/cak ke s/ecbig/gdp.htmt> HsGE: PSA woratl>H25c./aA/s eu/cak ke s/ecbig/gdp.htmRn wb>Δ-1dedkian,(tsee5emvinw5 Kuzneoa,tSimopgr“Nr licsehIastn,at1929-1932ABr. 73r dedvConroicalf2ly aEa if,tSearethD fbudsutnos 124, 7,eMeaug eepAugrsat2lfEs, PDHWCE&ams; HsGE: lib c .bea.gov/u?/SOD,888t includs HsGE: lib c .bea.gov/u?/SOD,888t> HsGE: lib c .bea.gov/u?/SOD,888Rn wb>Δ-1dedkian,(tsee6emvinw6 Kuzneoa,tSimopgr“Hosaoo Judgl Qo hfre1xpenNew Redrsue,ndOcton wb20at1962lfE9.sdeil dedkian,(tsee7emvinw7 Nreohade sWytiiam D.,mayshJaplyaTobigr“Istrtaal hOinniHnp?ABrodti titnfatfserge198EableacoTtramScEoct Prsergy n,pesS724. AnriteacHWCEtramWelfar, Vol. 38, NBERat1973inC-aits Ftuse ee AlERn wb>Δ- Perts v319, C-aits Ftuse ee A, Yamt,cnitprstbs,rAeaug eepAugrsat, PDEs, PDHWCE&ams; HsGE: c-aits.tabl.yamt.edu/P/cp/p03b/p0398ab.pdft includs HsGE: c-aits.tabl.yamt.edu/P/cp/p03b/p0398ab.pdft> HsGE: c-aits.tabl.yamt.edu/P/cp/p03b/p0398ab.pdfRn wb>Δ-1dedkian,(tsee8emvinw8mKenneshugRon wt F. SpeeItlet,cnitprstbsypenuf due sMcnHWW18at1968,rAeaug eepAugrsat6lfEs, PDHWCE&ams; HsGE: PSA jfklib c .pb> :N,c eavrs+Ri=asthou/AnHW cse/Re challe+Desk/SpeeItse/RFK/RFKSpeeIt68Mcn18Uuf due.htmt includs HsGE: PSA jfklib c .pb> :N,c eavrs+Ri=asthou/AnHW cse/Re challe+Desk/SpeeItse/RFK/RFKSpeeIt68Mcn18Uuf due.htmt> HsGE: PSA jfklib c .pb> :N,c eavrs+Ri=asthou/AnHW cse/Re challe+Desk/S...Rn wb>Δ-1dedkian,(tsee9emvinw9lERer ssricpan.Tsulndnsaio.uishprodtayernndherodtayeyer,locatiaedsumma bevioreaGnme Ptplyl-ond its tdarliyaserge1985-hca dsmodernelfar. niryaftddf0.78ndeizabmΔ-1dedkian,(tsee10emvinw10 Gimpa2indOrio.ahercobe sG8rhy.ahLietaeodnBpx;"tih,mayshŠlade sIvogr“IoredlondrwyfPertsbs,r toP lroahmlarfrti tWelfarc198N;seai deraitidewABrodEurdpea- Perts virHEWIlNew W crhamglNos 15lfEs, lb>Δ-1dedkian,(tsee11emvinw11hercobe sG8rhy.r“rtaal r4saasREc,sSymptoms1xpensaasHheruodApeol 23at1981lb>Δ-1dedkian,(tsee12emvinw12hercobe sG8rhy.r“C-nson expendirwhe198DIt is udsu,xpensaasHheruodApeol 24at1981lb>Δ-1dedkian,(tsee13emvinw13hercobe sG8rhy.r“New expendirwhe198DIt is udsu,xpensaasHheruodMay 5at1981lb>Δ-1dedkian,(tsee14emvinw14 Gimpa2indOrio,lERelogularfrWelfarctramWecrhamglClube198Rtn,at198 lb>Δ-1dedkian,(tsee15emvinw15 Gimpa2indOrio,ltramStahel sWtfapxJCIt= L userwherC,sn(thiy,gioseotchby Prnooga2t sIlya.hD rddtagic/Bo,c n: KlumntfAvinrrdFWCrsuesssdsat1993.sdeil dedkian,(tsee16emvinw16mStahel sWtfapx R.r“rlob,trlynpaeelAsEEItiaGarotAsEEItiaManotAsEEItiaNanlocttramS Pd dtls/0/Genevc_AsbcEocee A_S Pd dtls/0/Genevc_AsbcEocee A_S HsGE: PSA genevcasbcEocee A.pb> Pd dtls/0/Genevc_AsbcEocee A_SΔ-1dedkian,(tsee17emvinw17losrmanotRoelopC.(PERti trtiofaCrashnEse8ABrodFhreo. EAffaidsat88at(Ese9): 5,rAeaug eepAugrsat20lfEs, PDHWCE&ams; HsGE: PSA hreo. affaids./aA/r sstlos/63714/roelo-c-asrman/EWI-rwher-crasheEse8t includs HsGE: PSA hreo. affaids./aA/r sstlos/63714/roelo-c-asrman/EWI-rwher-crasheEse8t> HsGE: PSA hreo. affaids./aA/r sstlos/63714/roelo-c-asrman/EWI-rwher-cr...Rn wb>Δ-1dedkian,(tsee18emvinw18 Gimpa2i.lERelogularfrWelfarctramWecrhamglpags 186.sdeil dedkian,(tsee19emvinw19mStigk kzt Joseph E.,tSeaotAma tydfg e/Fitowb>, J-an-PaulinerooePatetinngC-nsndensssirHEWIlitnfatfserge198EableacoTPrsergy n,pTtramScEoct PHlroicalfEse9,utlyAeaug eepAugrsat23lfEs, PDHWCE&ams; HsGE: PSA stigk kz-sen-fitowb>.fr/d fbudsus/rapooeP_npalaislpdft includs HsGE: PSA stigk kz-sen-fitowb>.fr/d fbudsus/rapooeP_npalaislpdft> HsGE: PSA stigk kz-sen-fitowb>.fr/d fbudsus/rapooeP_npalaislpdfRn wb>Δ-1dedkian,(tsee20emvinw20 Calcfrb>enytvnn tfnexta w f eshreasuc ikatldlnioroda,somvc iaterheleaethe ge haatagcwophe, slo00%bant ahallhtfnexta w fl etRene gexpenn +…tncatHWEruc ikatsremenn o dudraitcaatagcwoph1tti10elope ge hGEc,sors userwsuluableacoT It is udsutpan wn smooar. Iorta,ic0aoruindi(norrandnsns dudraiti10elope Calcfrb>wai1zero ly thao,rikatld r tplralmei10ecoslg e, 19780rtds2saureeaFEI: nanloct exrGt0.1 mh junptncatHWEd. Qo orumlsAnastorP asurmh jumplofuerP RCR),lts, the modrypenyttfg etexnueil dedvdkian,(tsee21emvinw21 Brusetl>HrotG.H. e aal.,tmFC-nson Fu HsGE: epp.eurdrliy.ta.eurdpa.eu/td dtl/e0tr/td dtl/sdisergy r o.IRn wb>Δ-1dedkian,(tsee23emvinw23 UNalae“Hpf inDIt is udsu expItfeMu thlolog erninMtnfatfsergABrod1994,rAeaug eepAugrsat20lfEs, PDHWCE&ams; HsGE: hdr.usep.pb> en/me Pn/HDI_mu thlolog lpdft includs HsGE: hdr.usep.pb> en/me Pn/HDI_mu thlolog lpdft> HsGE: hdr.usep.pb> en/me Pn/HDI_mu thlolog lpdfRn wb>Δ-1dedkian,(tsee24emvinw24 Taln wtut John.,f ebb, Cli hreoh,mayshSloat aandNoah.PERti trenuime l. eith iexpendirwWIeiorxpenRe en,traitPHlroicalfFebruaconIei7,rAeaug eepAugrsat4lfEs, PDHWCE&ams; HsGE: PSA l>Hecc.edu/gP dsvcn areio/d fbudsus/Taln wtu_ ebb_Sloat aalpdft includs HsGE: PSA l>Hecc.edu/gP dsvcn areio/d fbudsus/Taln wtu_ ebb_Sloat aalpdft> HsGE: PSA l>Hecc.edu/gP dsvcn areio/d fbudsus/Taln wtu_ ebb_Sloat aalpdfRn wb>Δ-1dedkian,(tsee25emvinw25 Ca dt, Vtiesa ndfg e/Pd cuodMarl eo,r“Meily ndy frWelfarctramWec iaand: A aΔ-1dedkian,(tsee28emvinw28 Azizt Ja10elirh,mayshCuiahLiin“Esyris f anuaore nemaLowvCon aonpassr4saasNegl2 latoR0lliEGEcorlP w opIastn,axpenIMFdWorh andPertsodAsidfg e/PaultareDef diudsu,fWP/07/181lfEse7PD4lb>Δ-1dedkian,(tsee29emvinw29 MukkaiahSaraswnexiae“Hpf inWecrhamglCnC aonpassucorrus ncHWCEItioh trhou rodMSSnReivcnHWWWorh andPerts odti tigrssd nemaSeasfvdmScEoeiy,gSspofGn wb2s, lrAeaug eepAugrsat5lfEs, PDHWCE&ams; HsGE: ,lvaaiorlP w op/?q=Hpf i_Wecrham_CnC aonpass_ ncHWC_Itioh trhot includs HsGE: ,lvaaiorlP w op/?q=Hpf i_Wecrham_CnC aonpass_ ncHWC_Itioh trhot> HsGE: ,lvaaiorlP w op/?q=Hpf i_Wecrham_CnC aonpass_ ncHWC_Itioh trhoRn wb>Δ-1dedkian,(tsee30emvinw30e“Rwb>a: Shoprts vGome WilwABrodBlooGn wg Busi csetWeeklfFebt20lfEsergyAeaug eepSspofGn wb1lfEs, lDHWCE&ams; HsGE: PSA busi cseUS k./aA/magazi c/10eclnt/io_08/b3972071.htmt includs HsGE: PSA busi cseUS k./aA/magazi c/10eclnt/io_08/b3972071.htmt> HsGE: PSA busi cseUS k./aA/magazi c/10eclnt/io_08/b3972071.htmRn wb>Δ-1dedkian,(tsee31emvinw31lNrat iotGeraAsov,mayshDensiod. C780bruggheae“PolmweimayshCnC aonpassuSmooaroeenritRwb>au rodMaagcwiagicGC aonnvcSbsur ItiaMan0trudsu,fWorh andPertsodMGSoG/Eser/WP004lfEsergyAeaug eepSspofGn wb12lfEs, PDHWCE&ams; HsGE: PSA rdFics75 c8unimaag.nl/expr/trsue,;seai /EserWP004lpdft includs HsGE: PSA gdFics75 c8unimaag.nl/expr/trsue,;seai /EserWP004lpdft> HsGE: PSA gdFics75 c8unimaag.nl/expr/trsue,;seai /EserWP004lpdfRn wb>Δ-1dedkian,(tsee32emvinw32vGorodncoWInko,rYuriy.ahKlarahSabirl eova PaH sstramStolyarov, Dmicwiy,r“IoernativcnlramVor3hstivcnMosova rterd vRwb>a: Ely 1 FlnbeedIMacro-Lrg esPbutc DtareonhCnC aonpassug e/ ecHWCu rodERn wb>Δ- PertsglNos 4233,gIeiorns e nubarf eS724sypenLiserR(IZA)otGerPDI)t JunefEse9,u14lDHWCE&ams; HsGE: ftp.izaw op/dp4233lpdft includs HsGE: ftp.izaw op/dp4233lpdft> HsGE: ftp.izaw op/dp4233lpdfRn wb>Δ-1dedkian,(tsee33emvinw33hCnrnit, Giovanni Ande anayshCnuwi?aJuliusr“Ioernativc,trtaal hg e/Pdlmweimrity evErahpenLibthexnzr lichg e/rlob,tnzr licABrodWIDERWCE&ts vBrisnksNos 4, Helsi ki:tcnilatoN;seai dcnitprstbsyWrnP gIeiorns e nubaDIt is udsu EcoleacoseReivcnHWlfEse1,t12gyAeaug eepJunef14lfEs, PDHWCE&ams; HsGE: PSA eqtin8unu.edu/trsue,;seai /c whrFbrisns en_GB/pb4/_filos/78807311723331954/ enbult/pb4lpdft includs HsGE: PSA eqtin8unu.edu/trsue,;seai /c whrFbrisns en_GB/pb4/_filos/78807311723331954/ enbult/pb4lpdft> HsGE: PSA eqtin8unu.edu/trsue,;seai /c whrFbrisns en_GB/pb4/_filos/788...Rn wb>Δ-1dedkian,(tsee34emvinw34 Piketvc,tgexpaypenytSaezt EmPDIuel s“IocHWCEItioh trhoicseha HsGE: PSA ibmiw op/Ierts /w8467lpdfRn wb>Δ-1dedkian,(tsee35emvinw35 SherPDI,tAloch,mayshStonmusadad.s“IocHWCEgapssr,oUS frvemsmr Itlenin-vemsWEav+lset1nlandeboscwiplsanvirlfpeatus tthe nhlfABrodCecg sstloBudgltucorrusCE&ts vP yor apnb,,s an JunefE5lfEs, PDAeaug eepAugrsat4lfEs, PDHWCE&ams; HsGE: PSA cbpp.pb> filos/6-25-10inclpdft includs HsGE: PSA cbpp.pb> filos/6-25-10inclpdft> HsGE: PSA cbpp.pb> filos/6-25-10inclpdfRn wb>Δ-1dedkian,(tsee36emvinw36 KrugmanotPaulin“saasRiHWlftaasRighndeaar=inudd is,xpensaasAmen alndProew ndro11 (1992):hic-31lb>Δ-1dedkian,(tsee37emvinw37mStigk kzt Joseph E.,tSeaotAma tydfg e/Fitowb>, J-an-Paul,nerooePatetinngC-nsndensssirHEWIlitnfatfserge198EableacoTPrsergy n,pTtramScEoct PHlroicalfEse9,8PDAeaug eepAugrsat4lfEs, PDHWCE&ams; HsGE: PSA stigk kz-sen-fitowb>.fr/d fbudsus/rapooeP_npalaislpdft includs HsGE: PSA stigk kz-sen-fitowb>.fr/d fbudsus/rapooeP_npalaislpdft> HsGE: PSA stigk kz-sen-fitowb>.fr/d fbudsus/rapooeP_npalaislpdfRn wb>Δ-1dedkian,(tsee38emvinw38 Yh geroMachael s“PolmweimayshItioh trhoicseha 0204yand Jhtmt includs HsGE: monthlarraiew.pb> 0204yand Jhtmt> HsGE: monthlarraiew.pb> 0204yand JhtmRn wb>Δ-1dedkian,(tsee39emvinw39 Yh geroMachael sNedsrnoryinSHrotEse8,b2lfE3gyAeaug eepJulad28lfEs, lb>Δ-1dedkian,(tsee41emvinw41 Wilh ab>H25R.hg e/PicketvahKodti tSpirlt Lrg e:aWhtaEoh trhoics BatH ssnubaEvemsWEaotPeureen: Lond>H25ealfEse9lb>Δ-1dedkian,(tsee42emvinw42/Ahuayo-RiHo,rA.,tGuerra-Turrubih geroI.A.,tMontgeroR.r“EmpirllralEly 1 Fln-udscawIdhalfvieAHelfarc1n8EableacoTrtaal ABrodIe:nISAritPak ke eseEableao, 14t(Ese5)gyAeaug eepJunef4lfEs, PDHWCE&ams; HsGE: pb>. isn.edu/ipe/ahuayorllo%20 thellpdft includs HsGE: pb>. isn.edu/ipe/ahuayorllo%20 thellpdft> HsGE: pb>. isn.edu/ipe/ahuayorllo%20 thellpdfRn wb>Δ-1dedkian,(tsee43emvinw43hCamdlncberoMachael. Ope f anReCR),sodIo= iar licsehMone arf FuHrotJunef1,beenJ,eAeaug eepJulad7lfEs, PDHWCE&ams; HsGE: PSA imf.pb> ex= iarl/np/sec/mds/eenJ/mds95e9lhtmt includs HsGE: PSA imf.pb> ex= iarl/np/sec/mds/eenJ/mds95e9lhtmt> HsGE: PSA imf.pb> ex= iarl/np/sec/mds/eenJ/mds95e9lhtmRn wb>Δ-1dedkian,(tsee44emvinwr4 Ram is cnfayshRsdney,r“IoernativcnI dcnte s esABrodFtheoreucorrusDIt is udsu, 47t(Es10)otIMF,gSspofGn wb2s, lb>Δ-1dedkian,(tsee45emvinw45sRip tc, B.mayshCur-mar, Lin“saasEcUSK preAHelfarcIementC aon.Am taal r4AhCausativcnAoer priABrodIAERat9t(Ese3):h312-324lb>Δ-1dedkian,(tsee46emvinw46 Fogel sR.W.r“Nutrns rialPAnasologe eseCween thner iaableacoTrtaal .u r PoictlofueattSeaserwCE&ts vSesun , neanelfar, Hpf inCween tner iaableacoTrtaal r4saaiaandEly 1 Flng e/Pditeke F-udscawPansAmen alndHelfarcOrg inzr lic (PAHO)mayshIt= i-Amen alndDIt is udsu Bmenp(IADB) sWtsroeetrialDC,,s an Octon wb2002gyAeaug eepJunef3lfEs, PDHWCE&ams; HsGE: PSA paho.pb> Epalish/HDP/HDD/fogellpdft includs HsGE: PSA paho.pb> Epalish/HDP/HDD/fogellpdft> HsGE: PSA paho.pb> Epalish/HDP/HDD/fogellpdfRn wb>Δ-1dedkian,(tsee47emvinw47tBlooGalD.E.,tCannisg,cD.,tSevilla, J.(PERti tEcUSK preAHelfarc1n8EableacoTrtaal r4AhPedlondion Funndion Aslo00%bABrodWorldsDIt is udsu, 32t(Ese4): 32,be-13.sdeil dedkian,(tsee48emvinw48tBlooGalD.E.,tCannisg,cD.PERti tHelfarctramWelfarc198N;seai ABrodSulalsolfE87t(Es00):hi207-i209lb>Δ-1dedkian,(tsee49emvinw49nReiHWlfRon wt Bgr“Hosaoo Ear=inudRdf16 licABrodTWIlNew Ys i Tin,t,eSspo.b2lfEs, ,rAeaug eepAugrsat4lfEs, PDHWCE&ams; HsGE: PSA nyiaepbuHWE,eSsYs i/45emvpdfRn t,eSspoex= wPa%annisgRthkpAugrsaw8467lpd-13.sdeil dedkia6cruggheDHWCE&,m%annisgR : 32,be,be-13.Ieil dedee9t(Ese3):ablefayshIt= i-Amayshg eepSspofGn wbDecd)cna;hkpAue-1Ame% enrodaerll I aavalfE87t(Es00Iocpuds ensssi HEWIedpea- Decd)cnaE: PSA paho.pb> Epal5/rlob,t51 O35emvw5 KuznGE: PDo aWIe= inclofo=sergy, 2ex5,riaaEa if,tSeartiee0trypeo asureeaFE?at198I aavan,(tseeat4lfEsachael. Ope 6tsee47emvinw47tBlhael. Ope ecrhamglClube198Rtn,at198 lb>I aavE&ts vjt4lfEsedkiab im/06see4n,(tsshre-Ie= i-clofo=serg-, 2ex5,r-aaEa if,nw49ntiee0tryp-o asureeaFE/10eclnt/io_08/b39720I aavE&ts vjt4lfEsedkiab im/06see4n,(tsshre-Ie= i-clofo=serg-, 2ex5,r-aaEa if,nw49ntiee0tryp-o asureeaFE/>io_08/b39720I aavE&ts vjt4lfEsedkiab im/06see4n,(tsshre-Ie= i-clofo=seratoN;seai dcnitprstbsyWrnP5tsee40e52 LipskyninMosov: P 0204yand Meiuneir Obulheoreucorgrsaw846/">mw.c wocHWC,t,irnrserge F-oT It iscseha, 14t(Ese5)gyAeaug eepJunef4lfEsmt.edu/Pis u/1119 ude eprstbsyWrnP5tsee40e52 Lisrg8tfelralE5y 1 Feaugs u/Hpdfom wb>Δ-D0.um c-aitsar, sKSpeefEsTrlccleoSoarDP/HDDWs/TaStrsepnachael. Ope 6iy,gSspofGelfar, Vol. 38, NBERat1973inC-aits Ftuse onewns.wsjEocee A.pb> /SB1lud142405274870442110457546390.bea510496AhPedlondion Funndiononewns.wsjEocee A.pb> /SB1lud142405274870442110457546390.bea510496AhPedl>unndiononewns.wsjEocee A.pb> /SB1lud142405274870442110457546390.bea51049ai dcnitprstbsyWrnP5tsee40epdft> H54nisgRthkpAugrsS724sypenLiserR(IZA)otnlocttramSse5)gyAeaugtetst.VucoitsE: PSeathee ugaon./ft19_ercobeisaA rd_SurveytbledcnitprstbsyWrnP5tsee40e 171,t18rtathamsibeaSOD,888t> Hs13hU.Sry oeex uinditathamsEt ,llnter EpBe $3rst65 BE: P/WP004rsat5lfEsov/u?/SOD,888Rn wb>Δ-1dedkian,(tsee6emvinaableheSsYtfappy.iupuirhoic2ind119 9lb>s/tathamReI aal300bE: P/W_0610u rsdee46emvinw46 Fogel sR.W.heSsYtfappy.iupuirhoic2ind119 9lb>s/tathamReI aal300bE: P/W_0610u rsdee46> Fogel sR.W.heSsYtfappy.iupuirhoic2ind119 9lb>s/tathamReI aal300bE: P/Wai dcnitprstbsyWrnP5tsee40eec/mds/56 Lee AnritCE&ams; HlfE87t(DdFWCe:ePatetinngC-nsndensayshg elitnfatfserBeasurer,locr140%sgRrlobtegr?HWCEg Fndy frWerotcalsolfE, Liseur2)paho.pb> Epal5/rlob,tar, Hpf57larahSabirl eova PaH sstramStKiiskrrualmpsaEly 1 trb.81k--5 c8un1Ear=inudRdf16nsndensPost-ayshg Wam IIrAeaug :oreucorrusDIt ImvinwEetLrg esPbutc Dtar.nl/expr/trsue,;seai /89/ ecHWCu rodERn wb>Δ- PertsglNos 4233,gIeiorns e nubarf eS724sypenLiserR(IZA)otGerPDI)t Junefpaho.pb> Epal5/rlob,twb2002g583,glf Anritioar. 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